NEOBIOME

D05: Smart Mobility & Electrified Transport

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typeedt

27 min read

D05: Smart Mobility & Electrified Transport

Domain framework: edt_framework

Scope

Low-carbon mobility solutions for community and rural contexts. Grounded in IPCC AR6 Ch. 10 and IEA TCEP transport category. CR_004

Key technologies

EVs (personal, shared, cargo), e-bikes and scooters, EV charging infrastructure, vehicle-to-grid (V2G), shared mobility platforms, active transport infrastructure (walking and cycling), autonomous delivery systems, fleet management tools.

Evidence

  • Findhorn Moray Carshare: shared cars and electric bikes available at multiple locations across the community; 300 community members using the scheme — a community-owned shared mobility model embedded within an ecovillage in rural NE Scotland; demonstrates that shared mobility infrastructure is viable at the scale of a 300-person intentional community. LIT_012

Global EV market state-of-play 2025-2026

  • 20M+ EVs sold globally in 2025, 25% of all new cars — battery EVs 65% of mix; ~5% of global car stock electrified; ~1.2 mb/d oil displacement. China 55% share + 60% global production; Europe 28% share (+30% YoY after EU CO2 tightening); US ~10% (Q4 tax-credit-end decline). By 2035 (IEA exploratory scenarios) 510M global EV fleet, 50% global new-car sales share. OT_024
  • NZ EV sales share 2020 → 2025: 7% → 12% — NZ in the cohort of 25+ countries with EV share >10%. Bracketed by Norway 97%, Iceland 62%, Singapore 63%, China 55%, UK 35%, Australia 15%, NZ 12%, US 10%. NZ data sourced from NZTA. Mid-band growth; not at the EU step-change rate but well clear of the laggards. RT_119 to retrieve NZTA primary. OT_024
  • Electric trucks 2025: 9% of all truck sales globally; China 25% — China TCO already competitive with diesel; Europe TCO parity expected 2030. Relevant for community-scale freight/utility vehicle planning. OT_024
  • Two-/three-wheelers most electrified mode — China + India 8.4M sales 2025; Vietnam doubled; Africa 70k two-wheelers 2025 (80× growth from start of decade); 25%+ of three-wheelers electric. Most relevant low-cost community-scale electric mobility category. OT_024

Charging taxonomy and V2G community relevance

  • 5 charging modes (Fig 8.10): Unmanaged (uncontrolled), V1G (unidirectional smart, controlled load shifting), V2H/V2B (vehicle-to-home/building bidirectional — outage backup, rooftop solar self-consumption maximisation), V2G (vehicle-to-grid bidirectional — full revenue stack), V2L (vehicle-to-load AC outlet for tools/appliances). NI vocabulary for community mobility-energy integration. V2H/V2B is the community-scale design unit for Lower Moutere — household with PV + EV + bidirectional charger can self-consume rooftop solar via V2H without needing V2G regulatory access. OT_024
  • V2G flexibility hierarchy (Fig 8.12, German case study): V2G ~±8 kWh/day > BESS (7.5 kWh) ±7 kWh > V1G +4 kWh > heat pump 4-5 kWh winter only. V2G provides the largest hourly energy flexibility of all domestic grid-connected technologies modelled — but unmanaged EV charging is the biggest single household load. Design rule: if a household has an EV, V2H is the single largest community-flex lever. OT_024
  • V2G economic case (Chapter 8): revenue USD 500-1,000+/year per EV; current commercial offers USD 770/yr; AC bidirectional charger <USD 1,500 (2-yr payback); DC USD 5,000+ (10-yr payback). Revenue stack: retail arbitrage + congestion + voltage regulation + phase imbalance + frequency reserves + wholesale arbitrage. NZ regulatory framework for V2G aggregation NOT yet mapped — RT_121 gap. OT_024
  • V2G commercial model availability 2026: 22 EV models (~1.5% of stock); ~3× more counting V2H/V2L (4.5%) — Hyundai Ioniq 9, Kia EV9, Nissan LEAF, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (multiparty interop YES), Renault 4/5/Twingo/Megane/Scenic, BYD Dolphin, VW ID series, Tesla Cybertruck (US only), BMW iX3, Ford Capri/Explorer, Mercedes CLA/GLC. Interoperability still limited (most are single-OEM single-charger single-utility packages). OT_024
  • V2G regulatory landscape (Table 8.4): France, Netherlands, UK, Denmark have all conditions met for V2G; Germany eliminated double grid fees end-2025; EU minimum requirements for all new chargers from 2027 include bidirectional capability + ISO 15118-20 support. China: 30 V2G pilots across 9 cities 2025; 5,000 V2G facilities target by end-2027. NZ NOT in IEA Table 8.4 — research gap (RT_121). OT_024
  • V2G battery degradation under managed cycling: warranties 70% capacity retention after 8-10 years or 160,000 km. Well-managed V2G can REDUCE capacity loss vs uncontrolled charging — average SoC lower in V1G/V2G modes counteracts increased cycling effect. Removes a key NI/community-design objection to V2G adoption. OT_024
  • The framework/methodology layer behind OT_024’s charging taxonomy (IEA policy-makers manual, 62 pp). It defines the full managed-charging ladder — passive ToU/critical-peak → unidirectional V1G → bidirectional V2H/V2B → V2G → battery-swap S2G/B2G — under a four-phase screening framework (volume of flexible EV load × demand for flexibility) that recommends the least-cost measure set per phase. Load-bearing NI guardrail: “the phases are not a measure of progress” and not every system needs to reach V2G — a small remote deployment is not under-served by stopping at V1G/V2H. The manual’s own Phase-4 exemplars are island power systems with high VRE (V2G pilots in the Azores, Portugal and Hawaii, US) — the closest analog to Neobiome’s remote-island NZ context; V2H/V2B is the community-scale unit (household PV + EV + bidirectional charger, no grid-market access), with 19–600 hours of backup power from a V2H + rooftop PV the quantified off-grid resilience figure. OT_118
  • V2G/V1G value-stack framing — order-of-magnitude, NOT NZ inputs. The benefits/limitations table gives V2G EUR 2 304/EV/yr net saving to EUR −955/EV/yr net cost (Denmark, frequency regulation + bidirectional-charger cost), V1G USD 210–660 M saved + 6–13 GW freed (California/France), passive measures shifting 15–20% out / 20–30% into a given hour. These corroborate OT_024’s USD 500–1,000/yr V2G band but are jurisdiction-specific figures reproduced from third-party studies, in EUR/USD on grid-connected markets — framing/sign only, never a NZ cost cell (sharpens but does not close the standing NZ-V2G gap RT_121). The battery-degradation objection is retired: V2G shows accelerated fade for NCA but decelerated fade for LFP vs regular charging, UK pilots improved battery life 8–12% via managed-V2G algorithms, and UN GTR No. 22 “virtual mileage” removes the OEM-warranty barrier. OT_118

NZ two-way charging status + D27 V2H costing (EECA, RT_287)

  • NZ status: two-way (V2G/V2H/V2B) chargers are “not yet widely available” in NZ; EECA’s Queenstown trial is scaling from <10 to 30–40 chargers during 2026 (with Rewiring Aotearoa), and the first approved two-way charger on EECA’s list is StarCharge AD20074EU1923. Real NZ cost + behavioural data awaits the trial’s late-2027 final report. URL_020
  • D27 V2H model inputs (both low-confidence, IEA-anchored): bidirectional-charger CapEx is topology-dependent — DC (Quasar/StarCharge) ≈ NZ12–15k installed**, AC ≈ **NZ3–5k (reconciling OT_024’s AC <USD 1,500 / DC USD 5,000+); no NZ retail price is published yet URL_020. V2H-capable fleet share is unpublished for NZ — IEA puts V2G-capable models at ~1.5% (≈4.5% incl V2H/V2L) OT_024, but NZ’s used-import Nissan Leaf (CHAdeMO) + Mitsubishi PHEV fleet likely runs higher; carmaker software locks are the blocker. Feeds the engine’s D27 v2h/ev_midday_availability levers + a new charger cost line (model-design addition, not auto-applied). Real numbers = RT_293. URL_020
  • V2H cost order-of-magnitude + fleet nuance behind the RT_287 figures (CR_054, medium — provenance for URL_020, no new cell). The synthesis behind URL_020 adds two carry-forward nuances to the D27 charger line: (i) the **NZ15,000 2022 Wallbox Quasar importer estimate** (Ingham Driven/MMNZ V2H FAQs — 'expected to retail for approx. NZ15,000 … requires a registered electrician’) as a dated order-of-magnitude anchor, ⚠ the original Quasar since discontinued; and (ii) the technically-capable > model-on-sale fleet nuance — the Nissan Leaf (CHAdeMO), a large share of NZ’s used-import fleet, is V2H-capable via a CHAdeMO bidirectional unit, so the technically-capable share exceeds the on-sale model list (Leaf, Outlander/Eclipse Cross PHEV, Kia EV9, Cupra Born, VW ID.3/ID.4 — EVDB.nz). Model inputs stay IEA-anchored (OT_024); real numbers = RT_293. CR_054
  • EV electricity demand at scale: EVs add 1,500 TWh global by 2035 (6× 2025); +4% global, +>10% Europe, +<6% China. For NZ at 12% sales share scaling toward ~50% by 2035, the equivalent regional load impact is substantial and not yet specifically modelled in MBIE EDGS visible scope (RT_117 successor). OT_024

NZ EV time-series empirical baseline (IEA Global EV Data Explorer 2026)

  • NZ EV sales share Cars 2010-2025 full trajectory: 0.015% (2010) → 3.4% (2017) → 6.6% (2020) → 9.4% (2021) → 24% (2022) → 27% peak (2023) → 11% crash (2024, Clean Car Discount removal Jan 2024) → 12% recovery (2025). Clean Car Discount cliff is the dominant NZ policy signal in the data. RD_006
  • NZ EV stock 2025 ≈ 128,000 cars (87,000 BEV + 41,000 PHEV + 38 FCEV), 4% of total NZ car stock. Plus 750 BEV buses (14% bus stock share — most electrified mode in NZ), 1,900 BEV vans, 3,000 BEV 2-and-3-wheelers. Full mode breakdown. RD_006
  • NZ public EV charging stock 2017→2025: fast 100→910 (9×); slow 89→290; ultra-fast 54 (first in 2020) → 270. Total ~1,470 public chargers 2025. LDVs per charging point rose 57→88 — vehicle stock growing faster than charging buildout. Average EVSE capacity 50→61 kW. RD_006
  • NZ NOT in IEA projection scenarios — only major markets (China, EU, US, India) + macro aggregates have CPS/STEPS forecasts. For NZ EV demand forecasts the NI calculation skill must look to MBIE EDGS (RT_117 high-priority gap) rather than IEA. RD_006
  • V2G fleet-scale potential for NZ — back-of-envelope: 128,000 NZ EVs × 60 kWh avg battery × ±8 kWh/day V2G flex per OT_024 = ~1 GWh/day theoretical NZ V2G flex at full V2G penetration. Currently gated by V2G-capable model availability (~1.5% per OT_024) and absent NZ V2G regulatory framework (RT_121). RD_006

NZ transport energy demand + electrification state (EECA EEUD 2024)

  • National transport energy demand + electrification state, 2024. Transport is the largest and least-electrified sector — 202.2 PJ, 38.8% of national delivered energy; by fuel diesel 51.2% (103.5 PJ) + petrol 41.2% (83.3 PJ) ≈ 92% liquid fossil, aviation/kerosene 6.6% (13.27 PJ), electricity just 0.6% (1.20 PJ). Road = 92% of transport energy; road technology mix ~96% internal-combustion, ~4% electrified/hybrid (ICE 95.9% / HEV 3.4% / BEV 0.5% / PHEV 0.2%); on-road diesel is truck-dominated (52%). Transport remains ~99% fossil-fuelled — quantifies the electrified-transport headroom, the national demand-side counterpart to the EV-uptake registers RD_006 / RD_011. RD_024

NZ vehicle-fleet composition + travel/ownership primary (MoT Annual Fleet Statistics 2024)

  • NZ fleet composition + fuel-type STOCK split, 2024 — the STOCK counterpart to RD_006’s SALES-share series. Total fleet 4,745,099 (light 4,309,833 = 90.8%; +76.7% since 2000). Light-fleet fuel-type stock: petrol 2,952,568 (68.5%) + petrol-hybrid 307,968 (7.1%) + diesel 923,050 (21.4%) + BEV 78,834 (1.83%) + PHEV 34,287 (0.80%) + petrol-electric hybrid 7,285 + diesel hybrid 4,338 + hydrogen 37. All-vehicle-types BEV 82,398 (incl. 515 electric buses = 4.3% of the bus fleet, NZ’s most electrified heavy category; 269 electric trucks). Petrol light-vehicle stock has FALLEN since 2019 (3,129,051 → 2,952,568) while diesel + all EV/hybrid categories rise. BEV stock-share (1.83%) trails the ~12% new-registration sales-share RD_006 by 6.56× — the diesel/petrol legacy-fleet correction to any “12% EV” reading. RD_027
  • Light-fleet travel intensity 2024 — corroborates the engine’s EV_KWH_PER_EV_YR basis (register A11). The light fleet drove 45.78 billion vehicle-km in 2024 = 10,623 km per vehicle / 8,654 km per capita (excl. motorcycles). This government-primary per-vehicle figure sits on the ~10,950 km/yr MoT basis behind OT_029/OT_070 and within OT_029’s ~11,000 km/yr — corroborating (not re-basing) the EV running-energy assumption. Per-vehicle travel has fallen from a ~13,250 km/yr 2001 peak (more vehicles, each driven less). RD_027
  • Ownership + fleet age 2024 — anchors ev_per_hh and explains the stock-vs-sales lag. 814.7 light vehicles per 1,000 people (≈0.81 per capita; light passenger 668.1, light commercial 146.6) against a June-2024 population of 5,290,100 → ≈2 light vehicles per average household, the empirical denominator for the D27 ev_per_hh reframing. Average light-vehicle age 14.84 years (used imports 18.43 yr, new 12.32 yr; overall fleet 15.0 yr) — a ~15-year-old, used-import-fed fleet is the structural reason BEV stock-share lags new-registration sales-share by roughly a decade, i.e. a community starting from the NZ-average fleet electrifies its stock slowly. RD_027
  • Region-level VKT + fleet counts 2024 (coarser than RD_011’s 66 TAs, but government-primary). Regional annual VKT (billion vehicle-km): Auckland 15.47, Canterbury 7.361, Wellington 4.233, Manawatū-Whanganui 2.544, Northland 1.922, Hawke’s Bay 1.723, Nelson/Marlborough 1.645, Taranaki 1.216, Southland 1.192, Gisborne 0.435. Regional light-vehicle counts: Auckland 1,346,762, Waikato 416,117, Wellington 382,378, Bay of Plenty 314,350, Manawatū-Whanganui 218,079, Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman 162,353, Northland 159,980. A government-primary region-level cross-check on the EECA regional EV metrics RD_012 already wired for D05. RD_027

Global transport energy-investment macro picture (IEA WEI 2026)

  • Global transport energy-related investment 2026 ≈ USD 360 bn — EVs USD 295 bn (82%), rail electrification USD 44 bn, public EV charging USD 32 bn. Around ⅕ to energy efficiency improvements; growth ~2% YoY moderating in 2026. China + Europe direct ~90% of transport energy investment to electrification; North America >75%. OT_025
  • Legacy automaker consolidation: USD 65+ bn EV-related write-downs in 2025-early 2026 — Ford, GM, Stellantis, Honda. Reflects weaker-than-expected EV demand in some advanced markets, policy changes, reassessment of earlier electrification plans. Sectoral signal: transport electrification rollout is now more selective, not uniformly accelerating. OT_025
  • Emerging-market EV adoption wave 2025 — Vietnam 40% share, Uruguay ~30%, Thailand 25%, Türkiye 20%, Indonesia 15% (surpassing Korea + US). Driven by affordable Chinese models + expanding EV financing options (leasing, lease-to-own, battery-swapping-linked vehicle finance). Macro signal that EV adoption is geographically diversifying — not just NZ at 12% mid-pack. OT_025
  • China overseas EV-value-chain investment 2025 = USD 15 bn (10× 2019-2021 average); EV exports USD 62 bn (12× 2019-2021) — Chinese automakers are now major foreign-direct investors in EV manufacturing globally. NZ EV affordability tailwind: imports increasingly from China (already 70% of African EV imports in 2025 vs 16% in 2021). OT_025

EECA Co-funded EV Chargers register (~Jan 2026 snapshot)

  • NZ co-funded charger national inventory: 529 sites, 36.85 MW total installed kW via EECA Low Emission Transport Fund (and predecessor LEVCF). Power buckets: slow AC <25 kW 29%, destination 25-49 kW 14%, DC fast 50-99 kW 29%, high-power 100-199 kW 22%, ultra-fast 200+ kW 5%. Co-funded segment ≈ 36% of national public charger count (RD_006 reports ~1,470 public chargers 2025) — government subsidy is the spine, not the totality, of NZ’s public charging buildout. RD_009
  • Operator diversification: 12 top operators include ChargeNet NZ 78 sites (15%), Warehouse 35, Wellington CC 30, Foodstuffs NI 29, Z Energy 27, THL 27, Meridian 26, The Lines Company 24, Plug and Save 24, HAPNZ 21, Foodstuffs SI 20, WEL Network 16. Gentailers + supermarkets + retail + councils + accommodation + dedicated CPOs — operationally diversified, no single operator >15% share. RD_009
  • Lower Moutere co-funded inventory (13 Nelson-Tasman sites, ~40 km radius): Motueka High St (Warehouse 22+25 kW + Foodstuffs 50 kW DC + ChargeNet 150 kW DC fast 2024), Motueka Valley Hwy 5087 (Meridian 50 kW 2023), Kaiteriteri Recreation Reserve (HAPNZ 22 kW), St Arnaud (Meridian 50 kW DC, 2026-01-22 most recent), Richmond Lower Queen St (Meridian 150 kW 2026), Richmond Salisbury Rd (Woolworths 100 kW 2025), Nelson Vanguard/Gloucester (Foodstuffs 50 kW + ChargeNet 150 kW), Nelson TOP10 (HAPNZ 22 kW). No co-funded charger inside Lower Moutere village itself; nearest DC fast in Motueka ~12 km from pilot site — local charging gap empirically confirmed. RD_009
  • NMT charger-supply constraint quantified: ~830 kW co-funded installed kW across 13 NMT sites vs ~2,000 BEVs in Tasman + Nelson districts (per RD_011/RD_012 sibling data, forthcoming) ≈ 154 BEVs per co-funded site in NMT region — 40× the national average of 3.8 BEVs per co-funded site. NI mobility sizing for Lower Moutere should not assume national-average heuristics; community-scale charger demand-supply ratio is materially tighter than national. RD_009
  • Co-funding policy model = structural enabler: Pre-2021 co-funded deployments were 43% of total (subsidy-led); 2023-2026 deployments (45%) are increasingly gentailer + retail-led (Meridian, Foodstuffs, Woolworths) building privately atop the EECA-seeded platform. 2025 = record year for co-funded commissioning (87 sites); accelerating into 2026. NI community-charger business case at Lower Moutere likely requires EECA co-funding pathway (RT_137 captures the policy-funding-amounts gap). RD_009
  • EECA co-funding rule + real per-charger award sizes (the RT_137 deliverable, companion -ledger to RD_009's site register)**: EECA co-funds **up to 50% of total core project costs, capped at 500,000/project (LETF Q&A). The companion LEVCF register grounds this with real awards — a single community-scale 50 kW DC public fast charger was co-funded for ~46.8k–53.8k: ChargeNet Darfield 46,780, Kawerau 47,780, The Lines Company Whakamaru 53,750 (each an explicit single-50-kW award), plus the two-50kW Waitomo/Pio Pio award 97,500 (≈$48,750/charger). Gives NI a defensible community-charger subsidy assumption rather than a guess. OT_119
  • Charging-infrastructure share of the LEVCF scheme: across the 218-project register (rounds 1–10, 39,992,963** total approved co-funding), charging-type projects absorb **14.82M (~37%) across 95 projects (median per charging project 130,000; 'Chargers – public' n=20 mean 192,612) — the dollar-side confirmation of RD_009’s finding that government subsidy is the structural spine (not the totality) of NZ’s public-charger buildout. OT_119

EECA/EVRoam Public EV Charger Register (full unit-level, ~Jan 2026)

  • NZ public charger national inventory: 2,050 units across 617 unique sites = 170.71 MW total installed kW (full register including private/Tesla). 170.71 MW vs RD_009’s 36.85 MW co-funded subset = 4.6× capacity multiplier — co-funded scheme delivered the seed network; private commercial buildout (Tesla 126 units, BP 49 units, gentailer-led) now dominates installed kW. Site-to-unit multiplier ≈ 3.3. RD_010
  • NZ public network is DC-dominant: 1,705 DC units (83%) vs 345 AC units (17%) — structurally different from Europe’s higher AC slow-charging share. Reflects NZ’s small-network long-distance topology; supply-side limits ‘destination-charging’ V2H/V2G community-model adoption in NZ vs Europe. Power-bucket distribution: 200+ kW ultra-fast 291 units (14%) > 25-49 kW DC 195 units — buildout has skipped medium-DC in favour of highway-corridor high-power stations. RD_010
  • Operator concentration (units): ChargeNet 34% + Meridian 32% + Z Energy 18% = 84% of national units. Tesla 6%, BP 2%, WEL Networks 2%, JOLT 2%. Much more concentrated at unit-level than at co-funded site-level — large operators build multi-unit sites; small operators run single-charger sites. RD_010
  • Operator regional dominance (clear geographic pattern): Meridian dominates South Island + Wellington + NMT (50-59% share); ChargeNet leads Auckland (40%); Waikato is the only split market (Z 25% / ChargeNet 25% / WEL Networks 19%). Nelson-Tasman = Meridian 50% / ChargeNet 38% / Counties Energy 7%. NI mobility-scenario design at Lower Moutere should expect Meridian as the dominant interoperability counterparty. RD_010
  • Top 15 NZ charger megasites (15-20 units, 1.7-3.9 MW each): Bombay HPC (Auckland, 18 units / 3,900 kW) > Z Waiouru (20/3,800) > Z Bombay (18/3,400) > Tauriko Tauranga (15/3,250) > Z Waiwhakaiho New Plymouth (17/3,200) > Z Caroline Bay Timaru (16/3,000) > Z Turangi (13/2,275) > Tesla Rainbow Point Taupo (9/2,250) > Z Ngatea (12/2,200) > Z Ashburton (12/2,200) > Z Masterton (12/2,200) > Kaikōura (11/2,050) > Z Courtenay St NP (12/2,025) > Z Petone Lower Hutt (11/1,850) > Tesla Glenfield Auckland (7/1,750). Z Energy owns 10 of top-15 megasites — Z’s strategy = concentrated highway-corridor flagships vs ChargeNet’s broader unit-count footprint. RD_010
  • National regional kW distribution (170.71 MW total): Auckland 40.2 MW (23.6%) / Canterbury 36.6 MW (21.4%) / Waikato 22.3 MW (13.0%) / Wellington 17.0 MW (10.0%) — top 3 regions = 58% of national kW. Long tail: BoP 7.0% / Taranaki 6.0% / Manawatu-Whanganui 4.7% / Northland 3.5% / Otago 3.5% / Hawke’s Bay 2.4% / Nelson-Tasman 1.7% / Marlborough 1.7% / Southland 0.9% / West Coast 0.5% / Gisborne 0.2%. Per-BEV provision: 1.33 kW per NZ BEV (1,334 W) — sizing rule-of-thumb anchor for community-charger targets. RD_010
  • Site density per 1,000 km² (regional infrastructure inequality): Auckland 29.2 > Wellington 11.4 > Canterbury 2.9 = Waikato 2.9 > Northland 2.2 > BoP 2.0 > Taranaki 1.7 > Manawatu 1.2 > Nelson-Tasman 1.07 > Otago 0.94 > Hawke’s Bay 0.92 > Gisborne 0.83 > Marlborough 0.64 > Southland 0.50 > West Coast 0.39. NMT mid-bottom on spatial density. Empirical rural-urban infrastructure inequality at site granularity. RD_010
  • Tasman district detail (9 sites, 31 units, 2.2 MW) — full inventory expands RD_009’s site-level view to unit-level: Kohatu Flat Rock Cafe 5087 Motueka Valley Hwy (8 Meridian × 50 kW = 400 kW, 2022) — single rural site ~25 km from Lower Moutere; Murchison Beechwoods Cafe 39 Waller St (5 Meridian: 4×150 + 1×63 = 663 kW, commissioned Dec 2025/Jan 2026) — most recent major rural addition on SH6 ~50 km away; Motueka 271 High St (4 ChargeNet: 2×50 + 2×150 = 400 kW 2024); Richmond 144 Salisbury Rd (3 Counties Energy: 122 kW since 2015); plus Motueka 270 High St (25 kW), Murchison Fairfax St (2×50), Richmond 177 Queen St (BP 2×75), Richmond 280 Queen St (ChargeNet 50), St Arnaud (2 Meridian × 24 kW, Jan 2026), Takaka Willow St (ChargeNet 43+50). Kohatu + Murchison Beechwoods = 1.06 MW at two rural corridor sites vs zero in Lower Moutere village — community-charger proposals must position relative to corridor-scale incumbent capacity, not greenfield gap. RD_010

EECA EV Metrics by NZ Territorial Authority (district rollup, ~Jan 2026)

  • National scale: 91,900 BEVs across NZ (66 TAs) / 4.40M vehicles = 2.09% national BEV penetration; 1.75% BEVs per capita; 2,182 public charge points / 184.5 MW total. National derived 42.1 BEVs per Charge Point; 2.01 kW per BEV (internally-consistent self-contained metric — preferred sizing anchor over the earlier cross-source 1.33 figure). RD_011
  • Auckland TA alone = 44% of all NZ BEVs (40,194 BEVs / 445 CP / 2.87% penetration). Top 5 TAs by BEV count (Auckland / Christchurch / Wellington / Hamilton / Dunedin) = 67% of national BEV stock. Empirical urban concentration. RD_011
  • BEV penetration leaders (% of vehicle fleet): Wellington 4.80% (NZ ceiling) / Porirua 3.01% / South Wairarapa 2.98% / Kapiti Coast 2.89% / Auckland 2.87% / Christchurch 2.83% / Selwyn 2.59% / Lower Hutt 2.53% / Upper Hutt 2.22% / Dunedin 2.20%. 5 of top 10 districts are in Wellington region — governance / policy / urban-concentration correlation. RD_011
  • Rural EV laggards (bottom 10): Gore 0.26%, Wairoa 0.32%, Southland 0.36%, Otorohanga 0.37%, Waimate 0.39%, Westland 0.41%, Waitomo 0.41%, South Waikato 0.42%, Ruapehu 0.42%, Grey 0.42%. 11-18× penetration gap vs Wellington — empirical structural backdrop for any remote-community EV self-sufficiency argument. Tasman at 1.68% is mid-pack — comfortably above bottom-10 rural laggards but well below Wellington-Auckland-Canterbury leaders. RD_011
  • Charger-supply inequality (different axis from BEV inequality): Western Bay of Plenty 707 BEVs / 1 CP extreme; Manawatu 311 BEVs / 1 CP; Porirua 143; Nelson 82.2 (most charger-starved in NMT). Best-provisioned: Rangitikei 3.7, Buller 4.5, Ashburton 4.5 — sparse highway-corridor districts oversized for current local BEV stock (built for inter-city traffic). Under-provisioned districts coexist with over-provisioned ones — two independent structural inequalities. RD_011
  • Tasman district anchor row: 33 CP / 31 U / 9 sites / 1,007 BEVs / 59,984 vehicles / pop 59,623 / 2,325 kW → 1.68% BEV penetration, 1.69% per capita, 30.5 BEVs per CP (better than national 42.1), 2.31 kW per BEV (above national 2.01 — well-provisioned thanks to Kohatu + Murchison rural-corridor sites). Lower Moutere implied BEV count at Tasman rates: 50 HH × 2.6 avg = 130 people × 1.69% = ~2.2 BEVs today; at NZ-target fleet turnover (~25% adoption per RD_006 sales trajectory) ≈ ~32 BEVs. RD_011
  • Top-of-South-Island adjacent districts (NI-adjacent): Nelson 12 CP / 2 sites / 987 BEVs / 2.16% penetration / 1.76% per capita / 82.2 BEVs per CP = most charger-starved in NMT; Marlborough 22 CP / 8 sites / 483 BEVs / 1.00% penetration; Buller 12 CP / 54 BEVs; Kaikoura 23 CP / 27 BEVs (Canterbury region, highway gateway oversupply); Westland 8 CP / 42 BEVs / 0.41%. Tasman + Nelson middling; Marlborough + West Coast significantly trailing on BEV adoption. RD_011

EECA EV Metrics by NZ Region (rollup, earlier ~Q3/Q4 2025 snapshot)

  • Vintage triangulation with RD_011 confirms ~30% annualised NZ EV growth: RD_012 region sums are systematically 6-12% lower than RD_011 district-summed-by-region across all 15 regions; CP counts ~33% lower; kW totals ~52% lower. 3-4 month inter-snapshot gap → ~8% BEV growth per quarter ≈ ~30% annualised — empirically consistent with the NZ EV-sales-share trajectory in RD_006. For current-state NI calcs, prefer RD_011. RD_012
  • National sums at RD_012 vintage: 84,773 BEVs / 4.39M vehicles = 1.93% penetration; 1.61% per capita; 1,466 CP / 121.5 MW; 57.8 BEVs per CP. Top 3 regions = 74.5% of national BEV stock (Auckland 44.5% + Canterbury + Wellington) — even higher concentration than at district level. RD_012
  • Nelson-Tasman combined-region row (EECA methodology choice to merge Tasman + Nelson regions): 29 CP / 27 U / 9 sites / 1,850 BEVs / 105,839 vehicles / pop 115,652 / 1,946 kW → 1.75% penetration, 1.60% per capita, 63.8 BEVs per CP (#3 most charger-starved nationally at this vintage), 1.05 kW/BEV. Useful ‘Nelson + Tasman as one geographic unit’ view for governance discussion. RD_012
  • Regional BEV penetration leaders + laggards: Wellington 3.02% / Auckland 2.70% / Canterbury 1.94% / Nelson-Tasman 1.75% (#4) / Otago 1.74%. Bottom 5: West Coast 0.40% / Southland 0.40% / Gisborne 0.50% / Marlborough 0.88% / Hawke’s Bay 0.91%. Top-of-South-Island corridor regional inequality: NMT 1.75% middling, Marlborough 0.88% trailing, West Coast 0.40% = tied NZ floor with Southland — corridor structurally on the wrong side of NZ EV-adoption inequality, cleanly visible at region level. RD_012

EV-as-shiftable-load off-grid sizing lever (NZ, Aotea-Great Barrier Island)

  • EV-as-shiftable-load is a quantified off-grid sizing lever (NZ, Aotea-Great Barrier Island): relative to a late-evening/early-morning business-as-usual EV charging schedule, deferring the entire MG 1 EV fleet to the lightest-load window (12 a.m.-5 a.m.) reduces total net present cost by ~9% (~NZD 38,000-39,000), whereas shifting EV charging into afternoon hours (12 p.m.-4 p.m.) raises TNPC by ~20% (~NZD 83,000). Concrete NZ-context magnitude for the value of coordinated (V1G-style) charging — complements the V2G/V1G flexibility hierarchy from OT_024 with an off-grid capacity-sizing dimension. LIT_031
  • EV fleet modelling assumptions: private EVs = Nissan Leaf (6.6 kW charging, 40 kWh battery, ~270 km range), utility EVs = LDV EV-80 (6.6 kW, 56 kWh, ~190 km range); MG 1 carried 10 private + 5 utility EVs, private requiring full charge every alternate day, utility daily. EV-charging modelled with an ELF reliability index of 0.005 (slight oversizing tolerated for EV loads only). For MG 1 the EV loads were ~22% of total consumption. LIT_031

EV vs petrol household economics (Rewiring Aotearoa / EECA 2024, ~11,000 km/yr)

  • EVs convert 87–91% of input energy to motion vs 16–25% for petrol (≈4×); annual driving cost petrol 4,336 / EV grid 2,230 / **EV solar 1,703**; 15-yr per-vehicle total petrol 102,935 / EV grid 91,751 / EV solar 83,838 (80c fast-charge EV 116,310 is the only option dearer than petrol). RUCs 76/1,000 km; new EV 56,300 vs ICE 37,900. OT_029
  • 15-yr per-vehicle operating emissions: petrol 42,488 kg vs EV fast/grid 4,313 kg vs EV solar-charged 0 kg CO₂e — reinforces the home-rooftop-solar charging argument behind the V2H community design unit; household layer beneath RD_010 / RD_011. OT_029

National vehicle census + EV-load reality (RA Machine Count 2025)

  • Vehicle census: 3,529,821 cars + 542,352 utes + 195,761 light vans — all “Ready” or “Almost-ready” to electrify. Residential survey (n=1,763, self-selected): only 4.0% of households run fully-electric fleets, 87.7% fossil-only (incl HEV/PHEV); critically, >40% of petrol cars are driven <50 km/week → small daily kWh, supporting a conservative default EV load in the NI demand-level lever. OT_064
  • Rural transport — availability, not economics, is binding: NZ has only one electric ute model (LDV); an electric ute at ~1,000 hrs/yr saves ~$35,500 + 254 t CO₂e over its lifetime. Two electric-tractor brands (Monarch, Knegt) now operate in NZ. OT_064
  • EV running cost (/100km, RA Investing in Tomorrow 2024 Fig 5):** petrol ICE ~20 / grid-charged EV ~5 / **rooftop-solar-charged EV ~2 per 100 km (EV 89% efficient vs ICE 20.5%) — the running-cost ladder for the NI EV demand/economics scope; solar-charging roughly halves the grid-EV cost. OT_067
  • EV running-energy basis (RA household-model methodology): electric 7.324 kWh/day at the NZ-average 210 km/week (10,950 km/yr, MoT) ≈ 2,673 kWh/yr, rising to ~5,000 kWh/yr at the high (400 km/wk) tier; petrol 31.4 / diesel 22.8 kWh/day at the same mileage. Mileage tiers low/med/high = 50/210/400 km/week. This reconciles the model’s ev_kwh_per_ev 4,000 to above-average ~310 km/wk driving (between the medium and high tiers; at NZ-average mileage the per-EV figure would be ~2,673 kWh/yr) — the running-energy half of the NI EV demand-level load (the cost half is OT_067 above). OT_070
  • The data layer behind the census (RA Machine Count DATABASE, OT_153 — the open-source workbook OT_064’s vehicle figures were computed from). The disaggregated national census (299 machine_type × fuel rows summing to 10,213,287 machines) gives the row-level vehicle counts under OT_064’s rounded totals: petrol Car 2,874,433 + petrol-hybrid 316,433 + diesel 302,522 + PHEV 34,450; diesel Ute 473,836; on-road Motorbike 214,904; light Van diesel 111,125 + petrol 83,565 — each tagged with a Count-confidence (Very High for registered vehicles) and a 0–5 electric-availability tier. The workbook also carries the EV energy intensity (car 0.16 kWh/km ⇒ ~1,478 kWh/yr at 9,238 km/yr) and RUC $0.076/km, plus a per-machine “extra electricity demand to electrify” column — the transport slice of the electrification-load layer. RA’s ~1,478 kWh/EV/yr sits far below the engine’s ev_kwh_per_ev (~4,000 kWh/yr) — recorded here as a candidate input, with the 4,000-vs-1,478 discrepancy left open (RA models a smaller, low-mileage car, below even OT_070’s ~2,673 kWh/yr NZ-average figure; corroborates the mileage-dependent band, does NOT re-base the cell here). OT_153

Forest Lodge Orchard — electric farm machinery in service (CR_034)

  • The demand-side of “electrify everything” on a real NZ farm: Monarch e-tractor (NZ’s first, driver-optional, 75–80 hp equiv → ~10,000 L diesel + ~40 t CO₂/yr displaced), 2× 30 kW electric frost fans (vs diesel 30–40 L/hr; 2021 EECA season ~621/fan vs >7,000 diesel, 97% carbon cut), 18.5 kW bore pump, electric mower ($19k), 40-yr electric forklift, 2 EVs, golf carts. Confirms OT_064’s “tractors ready to electrify” with operating data. See forest_lodge_orchard. CR_034
  • Interviewee account (int_008): the electric tractor was the hardest electrification — self-imported from San Francisco, converted to 240 V, shipped to NZ because none was available locally; the maker has since gone bankrupt, leaving it unsupported — “it’s not the fault of the technology, it’s the problem of living on the bleeding edge.” Servicing/supply-chain risk (not performance) is the live issue for remote electric machinery. Interview VIII [INT_008]

Hydrogen FCEV V2G in a community micro-grid — research-horizon (Ohakune, Mohseni et al. 2021)

  • A notional NZ community micro-grid integrates a light-duty hydrogen FCEV vehicle-to-grid fleet at 40% penetration, retrofitting a **155/kW V2G outlet** (2019 USD) at **44% tank-to-DC-bus efficiency** — a minor line in the system (~**0.57%** of total discounted equipment cost, ~0.4–0.5m of the $21.72m whole-life cost). Record as illustrative of the hydrogen-mobility research horizon for NI, not calibration. LIT_067

Community car-share + travel-demand reduction (Dancing Rabbit, USA — international comparator)

  • Dancing Rabbit vehicle co-op (PRIMARY, Lockyer 2017): 4 shared vehicles across ~67 users = 0.06 cars/capita (8% of the US 0.8); local travel 899 mi/1,447 km per user/yr (<10% of US 9,455 mi); fuel 28 gal/yr (18 petroleum + 10 biodiesel); no personal motor vehicles permitted on common land (covenant). A community car-share + travel-demand-reduction mobility model. LIT_081

SSI connections

  • I07 Fulfilment of basic needs — access to mobility enables participation in economic and social life.
  • I09 Environmental sustainability — electrification of transport reduces fossil fuel consumption and emissions.
  • I01 Financial & economic sufficiency — reduced transport operating costs and shared ownership models affect community finances.

Connections

Links to

Sources (24): CR_004 · CR_034 · CR_054 · LIT_012 · LIT_031 · LIT_067 · LIT_081 · OT_024 · OT_025 · OT_029 · OT_064 · OT_067 · +12 more

Concepts (1): EDT Framework — Emerging & Disruptive Technolo…

Cases (1): Electric Cherries

Referenced by

Sources (3): CR_054 · OT_025 · OT_119

Graph View

Backlinks