NEOBIOME

OT_024: IEA (May 2026) — Global EV Outlook 2026: Growing sales amid an energy crisis

Properties5
typesource
source_typeother
authorInternational Energy Agency
year2026
topicsmobility_transport, energy_storage_grid, methodology_frameworks, nz_specific

8 min read

OT_024: IEA (May 2026) — Global EV Outlook 2026: Growing sales amid an energy crisis

Source

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026 — original source (opens in a new tab; the file is not redistributed)

Summary

The IEA’s annual flagship EV report (May 2026 revised), tracking 2025 deployment + 2026 Q1 monthly data + outlook to 2035. 290-page coverage spans car/truck/two-wheeler markets, prices and affordability, batteries (chemistry + supply chain), charging infrastructure (incl. V2G), manufacturing/trade, software/AI special chapter, energy-system implications. Headline 2025 finding: 20M+ EVs sold (25% share globally); China dominates (55% share, 60% global production); Europe rebounded to 28% share following EU CO2 tightening. NZ-specific: EV sales share grew 7%→12% from 2020 to 2025. Detailed V2G chapter (charging taxonomy, flexibility modelling, revenue stack, regulatory landscape, commercial models) provides the methodological backbone for community mobility-energy integration in NI design.

Key claims

  • Global EV market 2025: electric car sales grew 20% YoY to exceed 20 million globally; 25% (1 in 4) of all new cars sold were electric. Battery EVs were 65% of EV sales; ~5% of global car stock now electrified, displacing ~1.2 mb/d oil demand. China 55% share (13M+ cars, 44M stock); Europe 28% (>4M sales, +30% YoY following EU CO2 standard tightening); US ~10% (Q4 tax-credit-end-driven decline); NZ 12% (Figure 1.2). OT_024
  • NZ EV market 2020 → 2025: sales share grew from 7% to 12% — NZ in the cohort of 25+ countries with EV sales share above 10%. Globally the share-above-10% cohort includes Norway 97%, Iceland 62%, Singapore 63%, China 55%, UK 35%, Switzerland 34%, Australia 15%, NZ 12%, US 10%. NZ data sourced from NZTA (Figure 1.2). OT_024
  • 2026 Q1 dynamics: 3.9M global EV sales, -8% YoY (driven by China + US policy shifts) BUT masks regional growth: Europe +30%, Asia Pacific (excl. China) +80%, Latin America +75%. March 2026: 30 countries with record monthly sales. Full-year 2026 forecast: 23M global EV sales (28% of total), driven by Europe (+20% to ~33% share), China (slower growth to ~60%), Asia Pacific (+50%), Latin America (+45%). OT_024
  • Long-term outlook: global EV fleet projected 6× by 2035 to 510M (excluding two/three-wheelers); 50% global new-car sales share by 2035 (IEA exploratory scenarios). China 90% sales share 2035; Europe 90%+ even after proposed Automotive Package reduction. Southeast Asia EV sales share projected 3× to 2035. OT_024
  • Electric trucks 2025: sales more than doubled YoY to reach 9% of all truck sales globally; China 25% (1-in-4 trucks electric); China TCO already competitive with diesel; Europe TCO parity expected by 2030; EU has 1,000+ chargers exclusively for electric trucks. By 2035 ≥20% global truck sales electric (60% in China). OT_024
  • Two-/three-wheelers most electrified mode (Chapter 3): China + India 8.4M sales 2025; Vietnam doubled; Africa 70k two-wheelers 2025 (80× growth from start of decade); 25%+ of three-wheelers electric. Most relevant low-cost community-scale electric mobility category. OT_024
  • Battery industry concentration: China 80%+ battery cell production 2025; nearly all globally-supplied cells from China/Korea/Japan companies; China market share in EU has nearly doubled since 2023. Despite faster EU + US capacity growth, China set to remain largest battery + materials producer to 2035. OT_024
  • EV charging taxonomy (Figure 8.10) — five distinct charging modes: Unmanaged (uncontrolled); V1G (unidirectional smart charging, controlled load shifting); V2H/V2B (vehicle-to-home/building bidirectional, outage backup or maximise rooftop solar self-consumption); V2G (vehicle-to-grid bidirectional, full grid-stabilisation revenue stack); V2L (vehicle-to-load, AC outlet for tools/appliances). NI vocabulary for community mobility-energy integration. OT_024
  • V2G flexibility comparison (Fig 8.12, German case study, daily average hourly): EV with V2G ~+8 kWh from grid / -7 kWh to grid (±9 kWh band); BESS (7.5 kWh) comparable bidirectional; V1G ~4 kWh one-direction; air-to-water heat pump 4-5 kWh winter only (drops in spring/summer). For 60 kWh EV battery, 48 km/day driving, 18.5h plugged in, 88% SoC at arrival. V2G provides the largest hourly energy flexibility of all domestic grid-connected technologies modelled. OT_024
  • V2G economic case for individual EV owner: revenue range USD 500-1,000+/year. Current commercial offers promise up to USD 770/yr benefit. Bidirectional charger costs: AC <USD 1,500 (2-year payback); DC USD 5,000+ (up to 10-year payback). Revenue stack (Fig 8.13): retail arbitrage + congestion management + voltage regulation + phase imbalance + fault restoration + fast/primary/secondary frequency reserves + wholesale arbitrage (via aggregator → DSO/TSO). Voltage regulation is the current key for near-term profitability. OT_024
  • V2G grid investment savings (Chapter 8 study aggregation): San Francisco — V2G avoids 75% of transformer overloads by 2050 vs uncontrolled charging, half compared to V1G; Germany — up to 6% reduction in distribution grid investment costs to 2040 with grid-friendly V2G; Northern France — V1G/V2G reduce 2040 peak loads by 6-9%; European charging buildout — V1G provides 2-5% energy system cost savings vs uncontrolled. V2G most beneficial under transmission constraints and high solar PV shares. OT_024
  • V2G model availability 2026: 22 commercial V2G-capable EV models (1.5% of EV models); ~3× more counting V2H/V2L (4.5% of stock). Tabled models include Hyundai Ioniq 9 (AC), Kia EV9 (AC), Nissan LEAF (CHAdeMO, multiparty-interop YES), Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (multiparty YES), Tesla Cybertruck (NACS, US-Texas only), Renault 4/5/Twingo/Megane/Scenic (Type 2, FR/NL), BYD Dolphin (UK), VW ID.3/4/5/7/Buzz (CCS DC), BMW iX3 (CCS DC), Ford Capri/Explorer (CCS DC), Mercedes CLA/GLC (CCS DC). Interoperability across brands still limited. OT_024
  • V2G regulatory landscape (Table 8.4): France, Netherlands, UK, Denmark have all V2G market conditions met as of 2026; Germany eliminated double grid fees end-2025; EU minimum requirements for all new chargers from 2027 include bidirectional capability + ISO 15118-20 support. China: 30 V2G pilots across 9 cities 2025, targeting 5,000 V2G charging facilities by end-2027. NZ NOT in IEA Table 8.4 — research gap. Standards: ISO 15118-20 (2022) defines V2G via CCS; CHAdeMO declining outside Japan; NACS V2G not fully specified yet. OT_024
  • EV electricity demand 2035 (Chapter 11): EVs add 1,500 TWh global by 2035 (6× 2025), increasing total global electricity demand ~4%. Regional impacts vary: Europe +>10%, China +<6%. Smart charging + V2G can offset peak impacts. Ultra-fast charging trend: first 1,000-volt EV models 2025; sub-10-minute charging announcements continuing; >250 kW chargers <5% of EV stock 2025 but growing rapidly. OT_024
  • EV battery degradation under V2G: warranties typically guarantee 70% capacity retention after 8-10 years or 160,000 km. OEM concerns about accelerated cycling drive control over V2G operations (approved chargers, energy throughput limits). Recent research: well-managed V2G can REDUCE capacity loss vs uncontrolled charging — average state-of-charge lower in V1G/V2G modes counteracts increased cycling effect. Removes a key NI/community-design objection to V2G adoption. OT_024
  • Software-defined vehicles + AI (Chapter 8): EV industry leads centralised software architectures enabling OTA updates; driverless taxis (all electric) operating commercially in 20+ cities (mainly China, US); AI applications: advanced driver assistance, battery management improvements. Battery patents account for nearly half of all energy-sector patents. Cybersecurity + concentrated-semiconductor supply chain are emerging risks. OT_024

Neobiome Intelligence relevance

  1. NZ EV sales share 12% in 2025 (up from 7% in 2020) — first wiki source with the NZ-specific EV deployment trajectory. Validates D05 (Smart Mobility & Electrified Transport) as an active design domain for the Lower Moutere pilot rather than a thesis-only concern. RT_119 (NZTA primary) would close the citation chain.
  2. V2H/V2B is the community-scale design unit for Lower Moutere — a Lower Moutere household with PV + EV + bidirectional charger can self-consume rooftop solar via V2H without needing V2G regulatory access. V2G requires utility/aggregator agreement and NZ regulatory framework (NOT yet in IEA Table 8.4). V2H delivers ~80% of the household-level flexibility without the regulatory dependency.
  3. V2G flexibility hierarchy — V2G ±8 kWh > BESS 7.5 kWh > V1G > heat pump (winter only). For a community pilot where multiple households have EVs, aggregated V2G/V2H flexibility likely exceeds the community BESS contribution. Design implication: NI energy skill should size community BESS conditional on V2H/V2G EV penetration assumption.
  4. V2G boundary case for iea_edt_taxonomy_mapping §5 — V2G straddles A3111 (on-board EV battery) and F511 (stationary BESS). This source provides empirical characterisation: V2G-capable EVs are conditional F511 contributions when plugged in. NI energy calculation skill should treat V2G-capable EVs as time-weighted F511 stock, modulated by plug-in rate.
  5. V2G economics threshold — USD 500-1,000+/yr revenue, AC charger <USD 1,500 (2-yr payback), DC charger USD 5,000+ (10-yr payback). For NZ at retail electricity 36-40 c/kWh (CR_011) plus expected 2026-07-01 time-varying buy-back mandate, V2H arbitrage NZD ~$700-1,500/yr per household is plausible. NI calculation skill should include V2H revenue as a household-level financial flow if EV ownership is assumed.

What this report does NOT contain (consistent with iea_edt_taxonomy_mapping §1 explicit out-of-scope):

  • Active mobility (walking, cycling) — explicitly out of IEA classification scope; OT_024 covers two-/three-wheelers but not e-bikes or active transport
  • Community ownership models (community-owned EV fleets, carshare cooperatives) — only mentions Findhorn-style examples in passing
  • NZ-specific V2G regulatory framework — explicitly absent (RT_121 gap)

Research targets

Documents to retrieve

  • RT_119 — NZTA NZ EV registration statistics — primary NZ source for the 12% sales share finding in OT_024 Figure 1.2; current state of NZ EV pipeline. Available from nzta.govt.nz.
  • RT_120 — IEA (2022) Grid Integration of Electric Vehicles — methodology source for V2G revenue stack + technical architecture, cited extensively in OT_024 Chapter 8. Available from iea.org.

Research gaps

  • RT_121 — NZ V2G regulatory landscape: NZ absent from IEA Table 8.4 V2G market-readiness matrix. Need EA / MBIE / Transpower assessment of NZ V2G enabling conditions (differentiated tariffs, aggregator market access, ancillary services participation, local flexibility procurement). Likely sources: EA decision papers, MBIE EDGS.

Connections

Links to

Concepts (1): IEA ↔ EDT Taxonomy Mapping

Sources (1): CR_011

Referenced by

Sources (8): LIT_031 · OT_025 · OT_118 · OT_121 · RD_006 · RD_010 · RD_027 · URL_020

EDT domains (2): D01: Renewable Energy & Storage Systems · D05: Smart Mobility & Electrified Transport

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