Source
https://www.rewiring.nz/machine-count — original source (opens in a new tab; the file is not redistributed)
Rewiring Aotearoa (2025) — The Machine Count
First national census of NZ's fossil-fuel machines + their electrifiability, emissions and economics
The first systematic count of every fossil-fuel machine in New Zealand (~10.2 million), each assessed for technical + economic feasibility of electrification, emissions impact, and lifetime cost savings. Funded by Ara Ake + EECA; backed by a public open-source machine-count database. Strongest NI value: the EV/transport census (EVs sit within the model’s demand scope), residential + farm electrification economics, solar-generation benchmarks, and regional/off-grid factors. Note the residential figures derive from a self-selected online survey (n=1,763, solar-owners over-represented) — directional, not a probability sample.
Summary
Rewiring Aotearoa’s Machine Count quantifies the ~10.2 million fossil-fuel machines underpinning most of New Zealand’s energy emissions, sorts each machine type into three electrifiability tiers (Ready 84% / Almost-ready 10% / Not-ready 6%), and ranks them by emissions impact and lifetime savings. It pairs the national census with sector deep-dives (Residential, Agricultural, Business, Industry), five modelled household + five rural archetypes, real-world case studies, and regional factors (fuel availability, heating demand, driving distance, solar capacity factor). The headline: electrifying the top 23 machine types would cut energy emissions by 16.4 Mt CO₂e/yr (≈55% of NZ’s 2024 energy emissions) while saving money over machine lifetimes — framed as a deployment-finance problem, not a technology problem.
Key claims
- claim: "New Zealand has ~10.2 million fossil-fuel machines. 99.6% (10.17M) are technically feasible to electrify; 94% (9.6M) are technically AND economically feasible to replace at end of life; 84% (8,543,479) are 'ready to electrify' today — electric alternatives cost-competitive over lifetime and available for purchase in NZ. Almost-ready = 9.7% (995,126); Not-ready = 6.7% (684,459)."
source_location: "Executive Summary pp.3–4 + Fig 'majority ready to electrify'"
- claim: "Electrifying the top 23 of 95 machine types across all three tiers would reduce energy emissions by 16.4 Mt CO₂e/yr — 55% of NZ's estimated 2024 energy emissions. Electrifying all cars alone = 6.4 Mt/yr; the top 8 'Ready' types = 7.5 Mt/yr."
source_location: "Executive Summary p.5 'What is the emissions impact?'"
- claim: "Operating-cost savings + emissions by tier (priority-machine subsets): 6M priority 'Ready' machines ≈ $3.7bn/yr saved + 7.5 Mt CO₂e; 950k priority 'Almost-ready' ≈ $2.4bn/yr + 7.2 Mt; 71k priority 'Not-ready' ≈ $370M/yr + 1.7 Mt."
source_location: "Executive Summary p.6 'What are the machines?'"
- claim: "Machine counts (national): cars 3,529,821; barbecues 1,316,620; space heaters 1,007,548; water heaters 579,340; push mowers 505,075; line trimmers 362,385; residential gas cooktops 360,099; chainsaws 263,693; on-road motorbikes 214,932; utes 542,352; light vans 195,761; medium trucks 70,260; heavy trucks 69,269; buses 25,740 small + 9,960 large; large tractors 37,758; excavators 30,116; boats/jetskis 400,000+; process-heat machines ~755 sites (p.4 chart label reads 728 — footnote 10: 755 includes ovens/grain dryers counted elsewhere); generators 2,812."
source_location: "Executive Summary Fig p.4 + Summary Table 1 (Section 10)"
- claim: "Residential & light-transport survey (n=1,763, self-selected online): only 4.7% of households are fully electric across all appliances + vehicles; 31.7% have fully electric home appliances but still own fossil-fuel vehicles. Home heating: 70.5% electricity (heat pump/resistive), 19.4% wood, 9.1% gas. 32.1% use gas water heating; 34.2% use gas cooktops. Vehicles: 4.0% fully electric fleets, 87.7% fossil-only (incl HEV/PHEV), 8.3% electric+fossil; over 40% of petrol cars driven <50 km/week. Solar owners over-represented at 13.7% vs 3.0% nationally."
source_location: "Section 6.1.2 Survey Insights pp.41–42 (Figs 6.1, 6.2)"
- claim: "Modelled household electrification (5 K-means archetypes, incl. solar + 5.5% interest on upfront costs) saves 2,100–12,400 kg CO₂e/yr per household and is cost-positive for nearly all types. Yearly net savings: Auckland apartment $358; Waikato large rural home $3,167; Dunedin home $855; Christchurch home $1,239; Wellington home $2,718. 'Low-hanging fruit': LPG/gas water heating → heat pump (esp. South Island), and petrol → EV for high-distance drivers."
source_location: "Section 6.1.3 Modelling Insights pp.42–45 (Figs 6.3–6.7)"
- claim: "Farm electrification: on average ≥80% of a farm's machine inventory can be electrified. An electric utility tractor (~500 hrs/yr) saves ~$35,000 over its lifetime (avoiding 254 t CO₂e); two electric-tractor brands (Monarch, Knegt) now operate in NZ. NZ has only one electric ute (LDV); at ~1,000 hrs/yr an electric ute saves ~$35,500 + 254 t CO₂e lifetime. A 1.8-t electric forklift ($27–28k vs $25k diesel) saves ~$15,000 + 35 t CO₂e over 15 yr at 300 hrs/yr."
source_location: "Section 6.2 Agricultural pp.45–47"
- claim: "Solar-generation benchmark (modelled dairy archetype): 500 m² of rooftop OR ground-mounted solar generates ~130 MWh/yr for ~$220,000 upfront, ~30-yr lifetime; ~$34,000–35,000/yr value if 50% self-consumed / 50% exported. (≈260 kWh/m²/yr; ≈$440/m² — order-of-magnitude; m²→kW panel density not stated.)"
source_location: "Section 6.2.4 Archetype 2 (Dairy) p.49 'Solar potential'"
- claim: "Case — Forest Lodge Orchard (fully electric, Central Otago): electrifying ~20 fossil machines + installing ~160 kWh of solar (capacity stated in kWh by the report — verify rating before reuse) cut annual energy expenses from ~$66,000 to ~$5,300 and eliminated ~60 t CO₂e/yr; capex was $881,590 (machinery) + $272,604 (solar + battery), targeting ~10-yr payback. Electric frost fans replaced diesel (20–40 L/hr at $2.70/L → $3/hr), saving 11.6 t CO₂e/yr; surplus solar exported as new revenue."
source_location: "Section 6.2.5 Case study insights p.53"
- claim: "Case — solar irrigation: a 30 kW electric irrigation pump (previously ~$30,000/yr of electricity, the farm's largest bill) paired with a 55 kW solar array generating 74 MWh/yr now self-consumes >half its generation — 'at 9:30am on a foggy morning we're already producing 50% of the power we need for the pump.'"
source_location: "Section 6.2.5 Case study insights p.53"
- claim: "Regional/off-grid factors: the South Island has no piped natural gas (LPG only) so electrification saves more there; Rakiura/Stewart Island relies on diesel-generated electricity that is 'extraordinarily expensive and emissions-intensive.' For off-grid dwellings: high-usage homes → solar + battery is usually cheapest; low-usage homes → wood-fired heating or occasional bottled gas can be more practical. Heat pumps are 3–4× more efficient than resistive/fossil heating; solar capacity factor varies regionally (Dunedin cloudy vs New Plymouth sunny)."
source_location: "Section 7 Regional factors pp.61–62"
- claim: "Process heat: ~755 process-heat sites (boilers/burners); solutions split by temperature — <100°C → heat pump, 100–300°C → electrode boiler, >300°C still developing. Industrial process heat ≈ 15–16% of NZ energy emissions in 2024. Generators: 2,812 nationwide can often be replaced by renewable generation + batteries."
source_location: "Executive Summary p.7 'Process heat & generators' + Section 7.2"Neobiome Intelligence relevance
The single best NZ evidence base for electrification-as-load and for EVs within the model’s demand scope. Three NI uses: (1) D05/transport — the national EV/vehicle census + the residential EV-ownership reality (4% fully electric fleets; >40% of petrol cars <50 km/week, i.e. small daily kWh) calibrate the pending demand-level/EV lever; (2) D01/solar + off-grid — the 500 m² → 130 MWh/yr benchmark and the Forest Lodge + solar-irrigation cases give real NZ full-electrification + on-site-generation worked examples (candidate validation references, especially the off-grid/diesel-island framing for Rakiura); (3) I01/economics — the household-archetype net savings and tier-level $/yr figures are NZ-grounded electrification-economics anchors. The residential numbers are from a self-selected survey (solar-owners over-represented) → treat as directional. The heat-pump temperature split (<100°C heat-pump / 100–300°C electrode boiler) informs the biomass-vs-electrify decision in the heat slice.
Research targets
Documents to retrieve
- RT_229 — Machine Count Database (public open-source Google Sheet): the full machine census, electrifiability criteria, emissions intensities, and NZ/overseas electric-product lists behind every headline number. The data layer; candidate to calibrate NI electrification-load + EV scope.
- RT_230 — RA “Energy prices” spreadsheet (Supporting Docs §9): the fuel + electricity price assumptions behind all savings figures — candidate for NI cost cells (cross-check vs RD_018 MBIE QSDEP).
- RT_231 — RA “Solar generation & area-requirements calculator” (Supporting Docs §9): the m²→kWh/yr method behind the 500 m² = 130 MWh/yr benchmark — candidate for NI solar-sizing yield.
- RT_232 — Forest Lodge Orchard case (Central Otago, fully electric farm): primary deployment data (
66k→5.3k energy; 160 kWh solar;881,590 +272,604 capex) — candidate NI validation worked-example for full on-site electrification.
Research gaps
- (none new beyond the above — the report’s own “future work” gaps, e.g. sub-500 kW boiler counts and machine-level demand-flexibility, are RA-internal.)
Connections
Referenced by
Sources (4): OT_066 · OT_153 · OT_154 · URL_013
EDT domains (2): D01: Renewable Energy & Storage Systems · D05: Smart Mobility & Electrified Transport
SSI indicators (1): I01: Financial & Economic Self-Sufficiency
Cases (1): Electric Cherries