Source
https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Jun/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2024 — original source (opens in a new tab; the file is not redistributed)
Summary
IRENA’s annual cost-of-renewables datafile reporting 2010–2024 total installed cost, capacity factor, and LCOE for seven renewable technologies (solar PV, onshore/offshore wind, CSP, hydropower, geothermal, bioenergy) plus utility-scale battery storage. Data are project-level weighted averages with 5th–95th percentile bands, broken down by 8 world regions and 4 reference countries (Brazil, China, India, United States — no standalone NZ row; Oceania is the relevant aggregate). Headline finding: solar PV global weighted-average LCOE fell 90% from USD 0.417/kWh (2010) to USD 0.043/kWh (2024); onshore wind fell 70%; battery storage installed cost fell ~92% (USD 2,571 → 192/kWh). The dataset is the canonical global cost benchmark for utility-scale renewables and complements OT_021’s Germany-base methodology with project-level regional granularity.
Key claims
- Global weighted-average LCOE 2024 (USD/kWh, 2024 real): Solar PV 0.043; Onshore wind 0.034; Offshore wind 0.079; CSP 0.092; Hydropower 0.057; Bioenergy 0.087; Geothermal 0.060. Onshore wind and ground-mount solar PV are the cheapest electricity sources globally; both sit well below the LCOE of newly built fossil generation. RD_003
- 2010 → 2024 trajectory: Solar PV LCOE 0.417 → 0.043 (−90%); CSP 0.402 → 0.092 (−77%); Onshore wind 0.113 → 0.034 (−70%); Offshore wind 0.208 → 0.079 (−62%). Conversely Hydropower 0.044 → 0.057 (+30%) and Geothermal 0.055 → 0.060 (+9%) — capital cost inflation has overtaken capacity-factor improvements for these mature technologies. RD_003
- Oceania utility-scale solar PV 2024 (the closest available NZ regional aggregate): CAPEX weighted-average USD 944/kW (~NZD 1,560/kW) [range 598–1,385]; LCOE weighted-average USD 0.049/kWh (~NZD 0.08/kWh) [range 0.033–0.065]. Direct international anchor for NZ utility-scale ground-mount; partially addresses RT_110. RD_003
- Oceania onshore wind 2024: CAPEX weighted-average USD 1,363/kW (~NZD 2,250/kW) [range 1,143–1,704]; LCOE weighted-average USD 0.041/kWh (~NZD 0.068/kWh) [range 0.037–0.044]. Onshore wind in Oceania is now cheaper than solar PV on LCOE terms at weighted-average, reflecting strong Australian wind regimes; NZ-specific recalibration still needed but the Oceania floor is a defensible anchor. RD_003
- Solar PV learning rate — IRENA values are 2× Fraunhofer’s: IRENA Table 1.1 reports global PV learning rate 33.8%, Oceania 35.3%, OECD 37.5%, Europe 49.1%. Fraunhofer (OT_021) uses 15% for forecast prudence. The methodological gap is important: applying IRENA’s empirical world LR to a long-horizon NI scenario gives roughly 2× the cost reduction by 2045 vs Fraunhofer’s conservative case. For NI: recommend a bracketed scenario using both LRs (15% conservative, 34% empirical-historical) to bound forecast uncertainty. RD_003
- Onshore wind learning rate — World 25%, Oceania 32.4%, OECD 31.9%. Again much higher than Fraunhofer’s 5% (OT_021). Same bracketed-scenario logic applies. RD_003
- Utility-scale battery storage installed cost 2010 → 2024: USD 2,571 → 192/kWh (Fig 9.2) — a ~92% drop. Global deployment scaled from 0.086 GWh of additions in 2010 to 169 GWh in 2024 (Fig 9.1). USD 192/kWh ≈ NZD 320/kWh global utility-scale floor; converges with CR_008 NZ commercial-scale (NZD 300–550/kWh) and undercuts OT_021 German utility (400–600 EUR/kWh ≈ NZD 740–1,110). The IRENA global figure is the lower bound; NZ market sits 60–170% above it depending on volume/scale. RD_003
- Oceania large-hydro capacity factor 2018–2024: weighted-average 41% (down from 61% in 2010–2017 cohort). Declining CF reflects newer projects on lower-grade sites and climate-driven hydrological variability — NZ-specific concern given dominant role of hydro in the NZ grid (60.5% of generation 2023, RD_001). RD_003
- Bioenergy LCOE has stayed roughly flat 2010–2024 (USD 0.086 → 0.087/kWh, weighted-average) while solar/wind have collapsed. The bioenergy investment case at community scale is no longer cost-led — it must be argued on resilience, feedstock independence, heat co-product, or seasonal complementarity. RD_003
- Methodology: IRENA reports percentile-banded project-level data (5th, weighted-average, 95th) across project-cost-database submissions within each region-year. All values in 2024 real USD via deflator + FX. Use weighted-average as central, percentile bands as uncertainty envelope. Companion report (OT_115) carries the methodology details. RD_003
Neobiome Intelligence relevance
- Oceania PV LCOE 2024 (USD 0.049/kWh ≈ NZD 8 c/kWh) is the direct international anchor for utility-scale ground-mount in NZ. Combined with the IRENA Oceania CAPEX (USD 944/kW ≈ NZD 1,560/kW), this gives the strongest available evidence-based floor for the NI energy LCOE skill — sharpens the earlier OT_021-derived “NZD 8–14 c/kWh” estimate to a defensible NZD 8 c/kWh anchor at utility scale.
- Battery storage USD 192/kWh global utility-scale 2024. Sets the international floor that NZ community-scale BESS must trend toward over the next decade. Direct cross-validation with CR_008 and OT_021.
- Learning rates for NI forecast scenarios — IRENA’s empirical 33.8% (PV global) is markedly higher than Fraunhofer’s 15% forecast LR. NI long-horizon scenarios (2030, 2045) should report bracketed cases using both — conservative (Fraunhofer) and historical-empirical (IRENA) — to honestly represent forecast uncertainty.
- Hydropower CF decline in Oceania is a quiet but important finding for the New Zealand analysis — the established model of hydropower as a stable baseload is empirically weakening under climate variability. Reinforces the diversification case.
- Onshore wind LCOE (Oceania USD 0.041/kWh ≈ NZD 6.8 c/kWh) is below solar PV LCOE on a weighted-average basis — relevant for any Tasman pilot considering hybrid PV+wind. Wind at the Tasman site would need site-specific feasibility (consenting, visual amenity, wind regime confirmation via NIWA / energy@manaaki) but the international economics support inclusion.
What does NOT transfer to NZ:
- Sub-USD-200/kWh utility-scale storage assumes mainland-China supply chain pricing and ≥100 MWh project scale; NZ community-scale (<1 MWh) sits 2–4× above this floor.
- IRENA’s Oceania PV CAPEX is weighted by Australian utility-scale buildout (10s–100s of MWp projects); NZ community-scale (100s of kWp – low MWp) will land 1.5–2× above.
- Country-level financing structures differ — IRENA does not isolate WACC by country in the headline tables.
Research targets
Documents to retrieve
- RT_112 — ✅ RESOLVED → OT_115 (narrative companion retrieved & read verbatim; delivers the methodology + financing-cost assumptions + country case studies this datafile lacked).
IRENA (2025) Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 (the narrative report companion to this datafile): full methodology, country-level case studies, methodology box on percentile banding, financing-cost assumptions. - RT_113 — BloombergNEF (BNEF) Battery Price Survey 2024: cited inside IRENA Section 9 (Fig 9.3) as the source of country-specific battery price ratios; the canonical global battery cost dataset. Subscription-gated. Priority: medium.
Research gaps
- (Updates RT_110, not new) — IRENA Oceania weighted-average partially addresses the NZ-specific PV CAPEX/LCOE gap. RT_110 stays Open pending NZ-only project-level recalibration but Oceania anchor is now defensible.
Connections
Links to
Referenced by
Sources (6): LIT_031 · LIT_055 · OT_025 · OT_033 · OT_115 · RD_005
EDT domains (1): D01: Renewable Energy & Storage Systems
SSI indicators (1): I01: Financial & Economic Self-Sufficiency