Source
doi:10.1080/03036758.2024.2381750 — original publication (opens in a new tab; the file is not redistributed)
Summary
Pimentel Pincelli, Brent, Hinkley & Sutherland (2025) model how fast solar and wind electricity could scale in Aotearoa New Zealand using an empirical logistic-growth (diffusion-of-innovations) approach — an alternative to the energy-economy optimisation models (TIMES-NZ, MBIE EDGS) that, the authors show, have consistently underestimated real-world solar/wind deployment. They build two national pathways to 2050: a reference (REF) synthesising prevailing forecasts and a disruptive (DIS) with faster deployment; both phase out fossil electricity before 2030. In DIS, solar + wind reach 72% of generation capacity by 2050 (44% solar, 28% wind). The work separates utility from distributed solar and onshore from offshore wind (a first for NZ scenarios), and concludes that the binding constraint on the transition is policy, consenting and public acceptance — not technology, cost or resource. For Neobiome Intelligence its value is as a peer-reviewed national backdrop that qualifies the optimisation-model scenarios downward, supplies the national distributed-solar envelope (3.2 GW REF → 6.7 GW DIS), and frames the centralised→distributed, community-owned direction of travel at the heart of the project.
Key claims
See key_claims frontmatter (7 claims, cited to section/figure). All capacity figures are national scenario projections to 2050, not measured data — see the scope caveat below.
Neobiome Intelligence relevance
- Peer-reviewed national scenario backdrop (D01). An empirical-logistic companion to OT_055 (TIMES-NZ) and RD_017 (MBIE EDGS) — and, crucially, it qualifies both downward: optimisation models impose constraints that have historically under-called solar/wind. Read the wiki’s TIMES-NZ/EDGS magnitudes as conservative. LIT_055
- National distributed-solar envelope (the closest-to-community figure). Distributed solar saturates at 3.2 GW (REF) → 6.7 GW (DIS), growing ~18%/yr (2023) — the national rooftop/behind-the-meter envelope within which the pilot’s community PV sits. Pairs with the utility-scale resource/cost data in OT_056 and the buy-back regime in CR_011. LIT_055
- Centralised → distributed + community-owned framing (direct Neobiome hook). The paper argues the transition direction is away from centralised hydro/fossil toward distributed solar/wind with bi-directional grids, prosumers, and explicitly community-owned renewable energy projects — peer-reviewed support for the project’s core thesis that decentralised/community energy is the mainstream direction, not a niche. Mirrors the individual-PV-vs-microgrid and grid-scale-vs-rooftop tensions in LIT_048 and OT_055. LIT_055
- Cost-decline corroboration. Utility solar PV −85% and onshore wind −56% (2010–2020, IRENA) independently corroborate the learning-curve story in OT_056 and RD_003. LIT_055
- Constraint is policy, not physics. Saturation is limited by consenting and public acceptance, not technology/resource — a reminder that NI feasibility outputs should treat regulatory/social factors, not technical potential, as the binding constraint. LIT_055
- ⚠ Scope. National installed-capacity projections to 2050, not measured data or community-scale inputs; transfer the underestimation caveat, the distributed envelope, the direction-of-travel framing and the cost-decline corroboration — quarantine the GW magnitudes.
Research targets
Documents to retrieve
- Berka, MacArthur & Gonnelli (2020) — “Explaining inclusivity in energy transitions: local and community energy in Aotearoa New Zealand” (Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 34:165–182, doi 10.1016/j.eist.2020.01.006) — directly community-energy + NZ; a strong thesis↔NI bridge on why local/community energy has received fewer resources than centralised generation. (RT_218.)
Research gaps
- This paper gives national distributed-solar capacity but not a per-household or community-cluster disaggregation; whether any regional/Tasman cut exists for pilot calibration is unconfirmed (parallels the EEUD/TIMES-NZ regional-disaggregation gaps RT_127 / OT_055’s gap). No specific document identified.
Connections
Links to
Referenced by