NEOBIOME

RD_005: MBIE (2021) — Interactive Levelised Cost of Electricity Comparison Tool

Properties5
typesource
source_typereference_dataset
authorMinistry of Business, Innovation and Employment
year2021
topicsenergy_generation, community_finance, methodology_frameworks, regulation_policy, nz_specific

7 min read

RD_005: MBIE (2021) — Interactive Levelised Cost of Electricity Comparison Tool

Source

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-statistics-and-modelling/energy-modelling/interactive-levelised-cost-of-electricity-comparison-tool — original source (opens in a new tab; the file is not redistributed)

Summary

MBIE-published interactive Excel tool comparing Long-Run Marginal Cost (LRMC, /MWh) across 217 New Zealand utility-scale generation projects covering 22 technology codes — wind (45 plants), geothermal (23), hydro variants (32), CCGT, coal, solar (12), diesel peakers, tidal, plus demand-side response and V2G placeholders. NZ government's canonical LCOE comparison vehicle for the period; integrates with MBIE Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS). 2021 core assumptions: Gas 6.7/GJ, Coal 5.6/GJ, Carbon 35/t, post-tax real discount rate 4.5%, NZD/USD 0.68. Distinctive NZ methodology dimensions: HVDC Cook Strait charge allocation, GWAP/TWAP adjustment, Haywards reference-node pricing, PPI-based time-series rebasing. The plant-level granularity is unique within the wiki — every other LCOE source is global benchmark. Vintage caveat material: 2021 fuel/carbon settings superseded; cite as methodology + 2021 snapshot, not current-state input.

Key claims

  • 15-sheet Excel workbook with NZ-specific LRMC for 217 generation projects across 22 technology codes (Update register, Summary, Project list, LRMC calcs, GEM locations and new plant, fuel/carbon assumptions, XRateData, PPI, LRMC outputs, Summary Pivot). NZ government-published; integrates with MBIE Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS). Update history 2013-2015 documented; 2021 latest publication vintage. RD_005
  • Core 2021 fuel/carbon assumptions: Gas 6.7/GJ excl CO2; Coal 5.6/GJ; Lignite 3/GJ; Diesel 24/GJ; Carbon $35/tonne CO2. Post-tax real discount rate 4.5%. Exchange rates NZD/USD 0.68, NZD/EUR 0.60, NZD/JPY 75. RD_005
  • LRMC 2021 by technology: Wind median NZD 68/MWh (45 plants, range 54-91); Geothermal median 84 (range 68-127); Hydro Run-of-River median 81 (range 56-116); Hydro Peaking Daily 18-48 (cheapest NZ generation); Hydro South Canterbury 26-70; CCGT 82-94; Gas Cogeneration 59-63; Solar median 122 (range 70-128); Coal median 138 (range 93-313 wide due to carbon + retrofit); Coal-CCS 146-202; Lignite 117-139; Gas Peaker 174-180; Diesel Reciprocating 394-573; Diesel Peaker 8,036-8,996 (ultra-rare peak); Tidal $182-549. RD_005
  • Solar LCOE 2021 vs 2024 — sharp decline: MBIE 2021 median NZD 122/MWh (~12.2 c/kWh) for NZ utility-scale solar. RD_003 IRENA Oceania 2024 weighted-average USD 0.049/kWh ~NZD 81/MWh (~8.1 c/kWh). ~33% drop in 3 years — confirms the global -90% IRENA trajectory has continued at the NZ regional level. MBIE 2021 numbers stale for new-build solar costing. RD_005
  • Wind LCOE 2021 vs 2024 — stable: MBIE 2021 median NZD 68/MWh ≈ RD_003 IRENA Oceania 2024 NZD 68/MWh — onshore wind has reached cost-curve maturity, 3 years of stagnation. MBIE 2021 wind numbers usable as current-state approximation with appropriate caveats. RD_005
  • Plant status distribution (NZ pipeline 2021 snapshot): 83 Exclude-Other (existing operating), 36 Generic-Other, 31 Generic-Wind, 18 Generic-Geo, 12 Fully Consented-Other, 12 Fully Consented-Wind, 11 Exclude-Abandoned, 5 Applied for Consent-Other, 3 Generic-Lower-Prob-Geo, 2 Proposed-Other. The consented + applied + proposed pipeline was MBIE 2021 view of feasible utility-scale new build. RD_005
  • NZ-specific methodology dimensions not in OT_021 / RD_003: (1) HVDC Charge Scalar — Cook Strait link charges allocated to South Island generation; (2) GWAP/TWAP adjustment — Generation/Time Weighted Average Price reflecting NZ market dispatch; (3) Site/Haywards price — Haywards reference-node pricing; (4) PPI rebasing sheet — NZ Producer Price Index time-series. Unique NZ utility-finance dimensions. RD_005
  • Discount rate: post-tax real 4.5% (MBIE 2021). Compare OT_021 Germany base 3.2-3.5%, Section 6 high-irradiation/non-OECD proxy 5.1-5.4%. MBIE 2021 sits between — NZ utility-finance approximated. NZ-recalibrate for any 2024+ NI calculation (RT_110 still open). RD_005
  • Plant-level granularity: Capital cost (m), Variable O&M (/MWh), Fixed O&M (/kW), capacity factor per project. Example: Lake Pukaki hydro 35 MW Fully Consented, 153.3 GWh/yr, 110.9m capex, 0.98/MWh variable + 7.27/kW fixed O&M, LRMC $58/MWh. This is the granularity at which NI calculations can interrogate NZ utility-scale economics. RD_005
  • Wind cost scalar = 1 in 2021 default — no calibration adjustment between published assumption and current market. For 2024+ analysis: adjust via NZD/USD movement (0.68 → ~0.59 May 2026 = +15% in NZ-denominated CAPEX) and update LRMC base data accordingly. RD_005
  • Tool scope is UTILITY-SCALE GENERATION (≥10 MW typical, larger CCGT/coal). Does NOT cover: residential/commercial solar PV, behind-the-meter batteries, community-scale BESS, demand response at residential scale, microgrids, distributed energy resources at <1 MW scale. For Lower Moutere community-scale use OT_021 / RD_003 / CR_008 / CR_009 / CR_010 / CR_011 instead; for thesis NZ-utility-sector context use RD_005. RD_005
  • Methodology citation point — MBIE Interactive LCOE Tool 2021 is the canonical NZ government LRMC dataset within the wiki but superseded by EDGS scenario work. Treat RD_005 as: (a) thesis citation for NZ utility-scale generation cost landscape c. 2021; (b) source of methodological NZ-specific dimensions; (c) snapshot of NZ generation pipeline at publication. NOT as current-state-of-the-NZ-market input for any 2024+ calculation. RD_005

Neobiome Intelligence relevance

  1. NZ utility-scale generation landscape snapshot 2021 — RD_005 is the only wiki source with plant-level NZ generation data (capital cost, O&M, LRMC). For thesis chapters on NZ electricity sector structure, this is the canonical citation. Compare with RD_001 (MBIE Energy in NZ aggregate statistics, more current) — RD_001 gives the operational mix, RD_005 gives the project-level cost stack.
  2. Empirical cross-validation of OT_021 / RD_003 — Wind LCOE stable at NZD 68/MWh from MBIE 2021 to IRENA Oceania 2024; Solar LCOE dropped ~33% from MBIE 2021 NZD 122/MWh to IRENA Oceania 2024 NZD 81/MWh. Confirms the global PV cost-decline trajectory holds at the NZ regional level. Useful sanity-check anchor for the NI calculation skill.
  3. NZ-specific methodology dimensions not in international sources — HVDC Cook Strait charge allocation, GWAP/TWAP adjustment, Haywards reference-node pricing, PPI-based rebasing. None of these appear in OT_021 or RD_003. For thesis chapters making NZ-utility-finance claims, these are the dimensions an MBIE-grounded analysis would have to address.
  4. NOT a Lower Moutere community-scale input — RD_005 scope is utility-scale generation (typically ≥10 MW, larger CCGT/coal). Does not cover residential/commercial solar PV, behind-the-meter batteries, community BESS, microgrids, or distributed energy resources at <1 MW scale. For the Lower Moutere community pilot, use OT_021 / RD_003 / CR_008 / CR_009 / CR_010 / CR_011 instead.
  5. Discount rate calibration point — MBIE 2021 4.5% post-tax real sits between Germany base (Fraunhofer ~3.2-3.5%) and high-irradiation/non-OECD proxy (~5.1-5.4%). Useful sanity check for the NZ-WACC recalibration RT_110 still open.

What this tool does NOT contain (consistent with iea_edt_taxonomy_mapping §6 absent categories):

  • Community ownership models / community-finance instruments
  • Distributed energy resources at <1 MW scale
  • Behind-the-meter / residential cost structures
  • Microgrid integration (only generation-side LRMC)

Research targets

Documents to retrieve

  • RT_117 — MBIE Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS) 2024 update — the successor scenario framework underlying current MBIE LCOE/LRMC analysis. Should replace RD_005 for current-state NZ electricity sector references. → Now ingested as RD_017 (RT_117 resolved); use RD_017 for current-state national demand/generation/peak, RD_005 only for the 2021 utility-LCOE snapshot + NZ methodology dimensions.
  • RT_118 — More recent MBIE Interactive LCOE Comparison Tool update (post-2021) if published — same MBIE publication thread. Check mbie.govt.nz for vintage 2023 or 2024. Priority: medium.

Research gaps

  • Recalibration of MBIE 2021 fuel/carbon assumptions against actual NZ market 2022-2024 (gas crisis, ETS price movement). Not assigned RT — would be analysis work rather than document retrieval.

Connections

Links to

Sources (8): CR_008 · CR_009 · CR_010 · CR_011 · OT_021 · RD_001 · RD_003 · RD_017

Concepts (1): IEA ↔ EDT Taxonomy Mapping

Referenced by

Sources (2): OT_033 · RD_017

EDT domains (1): D01: Renewable Energy & Storage Systems

SSI indicators (1): I01: Financial & Economic Self-Sufficiency

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