Source
https://www.eeca.govt.nz/insights/eeca-insights/new-zealand-energy-scenarios-times-nz-2-0-guide/ — original source (opens in a new tab; the file is not redistributed)
Summary
New Zealand Energy Scenarios TIMES-NZ 2.0 (EECA + BusinessNZ Energy Council, 2021) is a guide to a national least-cost energy-system optimisation model run to 2060 under two contrasting scenarios — Kea (bold, government-led decarbonisation) and Tūī (continued GDP-led growth, slower transition). Its 16 key insights describe a New Zealand energy transition driven by electrification (electricity demand roughly doubles from 144 PJ to ~270 PJ by 2050; ~95% renewable electricity), large new wind and grid-scale solar build, energy efficiency as a major lever (road −80%, lighting −70%, industry +35%, agriculture +70% energy-efficiency), a doubling of wood fuel directed mostly at process heat replacing coal and gas, lithium-ion storage (1.9–2.9 GW by 2050), and a niche role for hydrogen (remote agricultural machinery) and biofuels. The scenarios are explicitly illustrative pathways, not forecasts, and the model outputs are scenario projections — not measured data. For Neobiome Intelligence the value is as a national validation backdrop (companion to the MBIE EDGS scenarios already in the wiki) and for several structural findings — most notably that the national least-cost build favours grid-scale solar over rooftop, which frames the national-least-cost-vs-community-self-sufficiency tension at the heart of the project.
Key claims
See key_claims frontmatter (8 claims, cited to section). All quantitative values are scenario projections to 2060, not measured NZ data.
Neobiome Intelligence relevance
- National validation backdrop (D01). TIMES-NZ is a companion to the MBIE EDGS 2024 scenarios already on the D01 page: both are national least-cost models projecting that electricity demand grows strongly with electrification and that the least-cost new generation is wind + solar (+ firming). TIMES-NZ adds the explicit ~95%-renewable-electricity convergence and the doubling of demand. Feeds D01. OT_055
- The grid-scale-vs-rooftop tension (core Neobiome question). The national model picks grid-scale solar over rooftop because it minimises whole-system cost. A Neobiome community optimises a different objective — self-sufficiency, resilience, avoided distribution cost, local ownership — so the same technology can be cost-optimal at community scale and not at national scale. This mirrors the individual-PV-vs-microgrid framing in LIT_048 and the centralised-vs-distributed debate elsewhere in the wiki. OT_055
- Biomass → heat corroboration. TIMES-NZ directs the doubling of wood fuel mostly to process heat (replacing coal/gas), not to electricity/CHP — an independent national-model corroboration of the NI ‘biomass = heat-only’ design decision and of Interview I [INT_001]‘s biomass-CHP-not-viable finding. OT_055
- Storage caveat for the resilience work. TIMES-NZ’s storage figures assume average hydro years and do not model dry years — a direct reminder that the NI backup/resilience research (RT_175–178) must size for the dry-winter case the national model omits. OT_055
- Efficiency as a demand-side lever. The model’s large efficiency gains (road −80%, lighting −70%, industry +35%, agriculture +70%) reinforce the demand-minimisation-before-supply principle that runs through the self-sufficiency framework (LIT_022, OT_053). OT_055
- Reusable data-source pointers. TIMES-NZ grounds solar availability in NIWA SolarView and hydro/wind in EMI half-hourly dispatch (2009–2017) — corroborating NIWA SolarView as the canonical NZ solar-irradiance source already used via CR_010. OT_055
- ⚠ Scope. Scenario projections to 2060, not measured data or NZ benchmarks; 2021 vintage with a superseded Tiwai-closes-2024 assumption; reports shadow costs, not market prices. Use the macro assumptions, data-source pointers, and structural findings — quarantine the projected magnitudes.
Research targets
Documents to retrieve
- The latest TIMES-NZ vintage (post-2.0; BusinessNZ Energy Council / EECA have continued the model) — a newer national-scenario backdrop that would supersede the 2021 Tiwai assumption and refresh the electrification/storage pathways. (New RT — national-data preference.)
Research gaps
- TIMES-NZ outputs are national; whether any Tasman / Nelson-Marlborough regional cut or the underlying app data is usable for NI pilot calibration is unconfirmed (parallels the EEUD regional-disaggregation gap RT_127). No specific document identified.
Connections
Links to
Sources (4): CR_010 · LIT_022 · LIT_048 · OT_053
EDT domains (1): D01: Renewable Energy & Storage Systems
Referenced by
Sources (4): LIT_055 · OT_056 · OT_073 · URL_024
EDT domains (1): D01: Renewable Energy & Storage Systems
Technologies (1): Hydrogen Storage (community-scale, seasonal)