RD_020: Residential Baseline Study 2021 — NZ Output Tables V1.9.2 (per-dwelling & national residential energy/GHG,…

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Residential Baseline Study 2021 — NZ Output Tables V1.9.2

The NZ numbers behind OT_070/071/072 — closes RT_237; per-dwelling electricity 7,172 kWh (2021) corroborates the NI demand baseline

The 26-table NZ output workbook of the AU/NZ Residential Baseline Study 2021 (the dataset whose methodology is OT_071/OT_072 and which Rewiring Aotearoa’s model draws on, OT_070). Modelled NZ residential energy per dwelling and nationally, by fuel and end-use, 2000–2040, plus PV, GHG and stock. ⚠ Per OT_072 the NZ figures rest on AU-borrowed usage assumptions — modelled averages over all dwellings (occupied + unoccupied), not NZ metering. data_quality: verified.

Summary

The New Zealand output tables (V1.9.2) of the 2021 Residential Baseline Study — 26 tables covering total and per-dwelling residential energy by fuel and end-use (MJ/PJ), gross PV generation, GHG emissions and factors, and dwelling/appliance stock, annually 2000–2040. This is the resolved dataset behind RT_237: the NZ household energy figures that the methodology in OT_071/OT_072 produces and that Rewiring Aotearoa’s household model (OT_070) draws appliance energy from. Its NI value is the per-dwelling end-use/fuel breakdown — a third NZ cross-check for the model’s demand baseline — read with the standing caveat that the NZ figures are AU-usage-anchored modelled averages.

Key claims

- claim: "NZ energy per dwelling by end use, 2021 (MJ; kWh in brackets at 3.6 MJ/kWh): Appliances 9,147 (2,541), Cooking 2,378 (660), Lighting 1,400 (389), Space conditioning 10,841 (3,011), Water heating 10,079 (2,800), Transport 119 (33), Total 33,964 MJ (9,434 kWh). All fuels combined; modelled bottom-up averages across all NZ dwellings (occupied + unoccupied)."
  source_location: "Table 7 'Energy.Total.HH-EndUse' (row 2021)"
- claim: "NZ energy per dwelling by fuel, 2021 (MJ; kWh brackets): Electricity 25,818 (7,172), Natural Gas 3,906 (1,085), LPG 1,089 (303), Wood 3,150 (875), Total 33,964 (9,434). NOTE: the denominator is total dwellings INCLUDING unoccupied (Table 25), so per-OCCUPIED-household electricity is modestly higher (~10%, ≈7,900 kWh) — which brings it from CR_009's ~7,088 up toward BRANZ HEEP's ~7,800. All three NZ sources are mutually consistent."
  source_location: "Table 5 'Energy.Total.HH-Fuel' (row 2021); denominator from Table 25 'HH'"
- claim: "Per-dwelling end-use trends 2000→2040: Lighting collapses 2,722→727 MJ (LED transition); Transport (EV electricity) rises 0→5,016 MJ (EV uptake); Space conditioning falls 17,459→6,233 MJ (insulation + appliance efficiency); Water heating stays roughly flat (~10,000–11,000 MJ); Appliances ease 9,607→8,457 MJ. Total per-dwelling energy falls 42,466→~31,700 MJ by ~2032 then plateaus/rises as EV electricity grows."
  source_location: "Table 7 'Energy.Total.HH-EndUse' (full 2000–2040 series)"
- claim: "NZ dwelling counts (occupied + unoccupied combined; from SNZ census): 1,483,763 (2000) → 1,909,596 (2020) → 1,936,427 (2021) → 2,011,915 (2024) → 2,316,768 (2040). National residential aggregates scale per-dwelling figures by these counts. The RBS 'household' unit is the physical DWELLING (housing unit), not the occupant group; average NZ household size is 2.7 occupants (2018 census, per OT_070)."
  source_location: "Table 25 'HH'"
- claim: "RBS NZ grid-electricity GHG emission factor runs ~0.15–0.24 kg CO₂-e/kWh over 2000–2012. ⚠ This is much higher than the MfE 2023 factor of 0.074 kg CO₂-e/kWh used by Rewiring Aotearoa (OT_070) — the RBS factors are dated and reflect a then-higher-emitting grid; use the current MfE factor for present-day emissions, the RBS series only for its own historical years."
  source_location: "Table 26 'GHG.EF'"

Neobiome Intelligence relevance

Closes RT_237 — this is the NZ household energy dataset the methodology sources (OT_071/072) describe and that Rewiring Aotearoa (OT_070) draws on. Its direct NI value is a third NZ corroboration of the demand baseline: per-dwelling electricity 7,172 kWh (2021) — or ~7,900 kWh per occupied household once the unoccupied dwellings in the denominator are netted out — sits squarely in the wiki’s existing band (CR_009 ~7,088; OT_037 HEEP ~7,800), and the RBS Appliances end-use 2,541 kWh aligns with the model’s elec_nonheat_hh 2,680 and RA’s 2,643 (OT_070) — closing the loop on where RA’s appliance baseline comes from. The end-use split (space conditioning 3,011 + water heating 2,800 kWh/dwelling, all fuels) is the per-dwelling heat baseline, and the strong directional trends (LED lighting collapse, EV-transport electricity rise, insulation-driven space-heat fall) are the national backdrop the NI scenarios sit against. The per-end-use, per-fuel structure also makes this the natural data spine for an optional bottom-up appliance-level demand build (a default NZ all-electric set, editable, with the demand_level lever scaling it). ⚠ Standing caveat (per OT_072): these NZ outputs rest on AU-borrowed usage assumptions and are modelled bottom-up averages over all dwellings, not NZ metering — treat as an AU-anchored estimate consistent with the NZ measured sources, not an independent NZ measurement. The RBS GHG electricity factor (0.15–0.24) is dated; use MfE 2023’s 0.074 for current emissions.

Research targets

Research gaps

  • RT_237 (RESOLVED → RD_020): the NZ appliance/household energy dataset behind RA’s model is now held and characterised; per-dwelling end-use and fuel breakdowns extracted.

Connections

Links to

Sources (5): CR_009 · OT_037 · OT_070 · OT_071 · OT_072

Referenced by

Sources (3): LIT_059 · RD_025 · RD_028

EDT domains (1): D01: Renewable Energy & Storage Systems