CR_051: NZ real-world benchmarks — heat, food, energy (July 2026 web synthesis)

CR_051: NZ real-world benchmarks — heat, food, energy (July 2026 web synthesis)

NZ real-world benchmarks — heat, food, energy (July 2026 web synthesis)

Advances RT_306 (heat validation), RT_307 (food-yield validation), RT_309 (off-grid LCOE) — none resolved

AI-compiled, medium. Much of it is already primary-sourced in the corpus — HEEP via OT_037 + CR_015, NZIER veg margin via CR_018, regen pasture via LIT_013 — so this page cross-links those and raises only the genuinely-new primaries (RT_322 Mohseni 2021 Rakiura; RT_323 MPI/Potatoes NZ yields; RT_324 Riggs 2023 Wellington heat). Per verified-source-only, no figure hardens a model cell until its primary is retrieved + grep-verified.

Summary

Three published NZ (or temperate-comparable) validation benchmarks for the NI model outputs. (1) Community space-heat demand: no NZ community district-heat scheme publishes per-dwelling delivered heat; BRANZ HEEP (34% of ~11,410 kWh ≈ 3,740–3,880 kWh/dwelling/yr, 2005 vintage) is the demand-side proxy — already in the corpus (OT_037/CR_015); the new datapoint is Wellington modelled 2,663 kWh/dwelling/yr (Riggs/BRANZ 2023), which validates CR_015’s modernisation discount. (2) Vegetable yield: no NZ permaculture/CSA yield dataset exists; commercial NZ crops are the closest anchor — potatoes 45/51/64 t/ha, onions 45 t/ha (MPI/Potatoes NZ), well above the mixed biointensive-garden ~21–25 t/ha (staple-vs-garden gap). (3) Off-grid LCOE: Rakiura/Stewart Island diesel up to 52 c/kWh vs an optimised PV+wind+battery+H₂ microgrid ~24 c/kWh (Mohseni 2021, Energies 6522); SDC 2024 PV LCOE NZ0.070–0.11/kWh — extends the NZ off-grid envelope alongside Totarabank (0.094–0.109) and Great Barrier ($0.09–0.10).

Key claims

- claim: "HEAT — community space-heat demand per dwelling (RT_306). BRANZ HEEP (Year 10 / SR221): average household total energy ~11,410 kWh/yr, space-heat 34% → implied ~3,740–3,880 kWh/dwelling/yr (2006–07 data). ALREADY primary-sourced via OT_037 (HEEP SR221) + CR_015 (regional space-heat, 0.843 modernisation factor). NEW: Wellington modelled space-heat 2,663 kWh/dwelling/yr (Riggs, Isaacs & White 2023, BBHTC/BRANZ) — a modern figure below the 2005 HEEP value, validating the modernisation discount. Wood-energy cost proxy: Living Energy Ltd 2018 submission to the NZ Productivity Commission — a rural wood-chip boiler ~cost-competitive with heat pumps (COP 4.0, 20 c/kWh), ~$580,000 savings over 25 yr vs two heat-pump replacement cycles, running cost recycled locally (95% chip). International district-heat comparison ~15–20 MWh/dwelling/yr (older Nordic stock, IEA Bioenergy Task 32). NO NZ community district-heat scheme publishes per-dwelling delivered heat (as of Jul 2026) — RT_306's real gap stays open."
  source_location: "Benchmark 1; BRANZ HEEP Bulletin 486 [^1] / HES 2023 [^2]; Living Energy PC submission [^3]; IEA Bioenergy Task 32 [^4]"
- claim: "FOOD — vegetable yield (RT_307). No NZ permaculture/CSA/regenerative smallholding kg/ha/yr yield dataset exists in peer-reviewed or govt literature. Closest NZ published anchors (commercial temperate veg): potatoes 45 t/ha (MPI GHG-inventory long-run avg) / 51 t/ha (Potatoes NZ commercial 2022) / 64 t/ha (high-input, Tupu/MPI); onions 45 t/ha (Ecoinvent/MPI 2009–12); veg gross margin $14,384/ha/yr (NZIER for HortNZ — ALREADY in corpus via CR_018). Regen context: AgResearch/OLW 2022 regen sheep-beef net pasture 7.3 t DM/ha vs 5.5 conventional (ALREADY via LIT_013); Woolworths/LeaderBrand Gisborne 2023 regen veg trials showed compost yield gains but no per-ha totals published. The commercial potato/onion yields (bulk staples) sit well above the mixed biointensive-garden figure (~21–25 t/ha, LIT_058/CR_021) — the expected staple-vs-garden gap, not a contradiction."
  source_location: "Benchmark 2; MPI GHG methodology [^5]; Massey/Potatoes NZ [^6]; Tupu/MPI [^7]; Ecoinvent [^8]; NZIER/HortNZ [^9]; OLW [^10]; Woolworths [^11]"
- claim: "LCOE — off-grid / remote-community (RT_309). Rakiura / Stewart Island (~380 residents, 100% diesel): existing diesel generation up to 52 c/kWh; optimised solar-PV + wind + battery + H2 microgrid ~24 c/kWh (Mohseni, Brent & Burmester 2021, Energies 14(20):6522, DOI 10.3390/en14206522). Southland DC Rakiura Energy Desktop Study 2024: PV LCOE NZ$0.070–0.11/kWh given the island's solar resource. A 2026 funded solar project is expected to cut delivered price by up to 35 c/kWh. Mohseni & Brent 2024 (J. Royal Society of NZ): stand-alone microgrids consistently beat grid extension on LCOE for low-density settlements >~10 km from the grid. Extends the NZ off-grid LCOE envelope alongside Totarabank ~$0.094–0.109/kWh (LIT_032) and Great Barrier ~$0.09–0.10/kWh (LIT_031) — Rakiura is the diesel-displacement (high-cost) end. ⚠ VERIFIED 2026-07-11 via the PMC full text of Mohseni & Brent 2024: that review does NOT contain the '>10 km grid-extension' threshold or the 24/52 c/kWh figures — it states only 'comparable LCOEs' to grid. The 24/52 c/kWh + the >10 km framing trace ONLY to the 2021 Energies paper (RT_322), which is MDPI-blocked and NOT yet primary-verified. Treat the >10 km statement as synthesis, not sourced."
  source_location: "Benchmark 3; Mohseni 2021 Energies [^14][^15] (RT_322, unverified — MDPI-blocked); RNZ/NZGeo interview [^12][^13]; SDC desktop study [^16]; Grow Regions [^17]; Mohseni & Brent 2024 JRSNZ [^19][^20] (PMC-checked — does not carry the figures/threshold)"

Neobiome Intelligence relevance

A validation-benchmark source for three model outputs (heat demand, food yield, off-grid LCOE) — mostly reinforcing/cross-linking existing corpus primaries, with three genuinely-new primaries to retrieve.

• RT_306 (heat validation) — the space-heat demand side is already primary (OT_037/CR_015); CR_051 adds the Wellington 2023 modern datapoint (2,663 kWh, validating the 0.843 modernisation factor) and confirms no NZ district-heat per-dwelling case exists — so RT_306’s real gap (a community wood-energy/district-heat scheme with published demand + cost) stays open. Primary → RT_324 (Riggs 2023).
• RT_307 (food-yield validation) — adds NZ commercial crop-yield anchors (potato/onion, govt-sourced); confirms no NZ permaculture/CSA yield dataset exists. Complements the garden-yield evidence (LIT_058, CR_021). Primary → RT_323 (MPI/Potatoes NZ).
• RT_309 (off-grid LCOE) — the highest-value contribution: Mohseni 2021 Rakiura is the definitive NZ off-grid-island LCOE study and the diesel-displacement anchor for the envelope. With Totarabank (LIT_032), Great Barrier (LIT_031) and Totarabank/CR_007 already in the corpus, retrieving it gives a solid multi-case LCOE benchmark set — RT_309 becomes near-resolved. Primary → RT_322; a cases/rakiura_stewart_island page is best created when RT_322 lands (verified anchor).

See D01, D02.

Retrieval provenance

AI-compiled benchmark synthesis (July 2026; exact tool unconfirmed), 20 web references, no estimated figures. Values AI-extracted and unverified until spot-checked. Per verified-source-only, no figure hardens a model cell until its primary (RT_322–324) is retrieved and grep-verified.

Research targets

Documents to retrieve

• RT_322 — Mohseni, Brent & Burmester (2021) Off-Grid Multi-Carrier Microgrid Design Optimisation: Rakiura–Stewart Island, Energies 14(20):6522 (DOI 10.3390/en14206522): verify diesel 52 c/kWh + optimised RE ~24 c/kWh. → RT_309 / RT_008
• RT_323 — MPI potato GHG-inventory methodology + Tupu/MPI fact sheet + Potatoes NZ commercial yield (45/51/64 t/ha) + Ecoinvent NZ onion (45 t/ha): NZ commercial veg-crop yield anchors. → RT_307
• RT_324 — Riggs, Isaacs & White (2023) BBHTC/BRANZ Wellington modelled space-heat (2,663 kWh/dwelling): modern NZ space-heat datapoint. → RT_306

Research gaps

• RT_306/307/309 stay open (validation cases still missing: a NZ district-heat scheme with published demand+cost; a NZ permaculture/CSA yield dataset; though RT_309 is near-resolved once RT_322 lands).

Connections

Links to

Sources (8): CR_015 · CR_018 · CR_021 · LIT_013 · LIT_031 · LIT_032 · LIT_058 · OT_037

EDT domains (2): D01: Renewable Energy & Storage Systems · D02: Smart Food Systems & Agriculture

Referenced by

Sources (5): LIT_068 · OT_096 · OT_106 · OT_108 · OT_121

EDT domains (2): D01: Renewable Energy & Storage Systems · D02: Smart Food Systems & Agriculture