Deep-research synthesis (2026) — Regenerative small-plot vegetable yield
Sets veg_yield ≈ 25 t/ha — and deliberately holds BOTH sides of the regenerative-yield question
A verified deep-research synthesis (104 agents; 22 sources; 25 claims adversarially checked) setting the regenerative
veg_yieldinput for the food slice under decision D_001. Central figure 2.5 kg/m²/yr (25 t/ha), medium confidence — and it holds the contested yield evidence in balance: regenerative matches/beats conventional on intensive-husbandry crops, but averages 10–32% lower whole-system and reverses on bulk staples. Resolves RT_061 + RT_240. data_quality: medium (best primary is a non-peer-reviewed UK survey; NZ evidence anecdotal).
Summary
A deep-research synthesis answering: what marketable vegetable yield (kg/m² or t/ha/yr) is defensible for a diversified small-plot garden run on regenerative/biointensive/permaculture/organic/no-till methods at the 0.01–1 ha community scale? It sets veg_yield ≈ 2.5 kg/m²/yr (25 t/ha), range 1.5–3.5 kg/m², medium confidence, and — per the project’s critical-research stance — keeps the both-sided yield evidence on the record (parity on greens via diversity/intensive husbandry; a 10–32% discount whole-system and a reversal on staples). It also gathers the quality (nutrient-density) and sustainability (soil-carbon) evidence, with the NZ-transfer caveat that NZ regenerative benefits were officially “anecdotal/unevidenced as of 2021.”
Key claims
- claim: "Defensible regenerative diversified small-plot marketable yield ≈ 2.5 kg/m²/yr (25 t/ha), building-block range ~1.5–3.5 kg/m² per crop bed, MEDIUM confidence. The only direct kg/m² dataset is the UK 'A Matter of Scale' (AMOS) survey of small agroecological farms: path-adjusted (×0.85) median yields across 18 indicator crops cluster 1.8–3.4 kg/m² (potato 1.8, carrot 1.9, leeks 2.8, salad 2.6, courgette/heated-tomato 3.4). This validates the model's existing 25,000 kg/ha placeholder as sourced rather than assumed."
source_location: "Landworkers' Alliance/CAWR 'A Matter of Scale' Table 5.1 (2014/15 AMOS survey)"
- claim: "FOR yield-parity (crop-specific): regenerative/small-plot BEATS conventional on hand-picked, husbandry-intensive crops — salad 3.1 vs 0.6, chard 3.0 vs 0.8, kale 1.7 vs 0.9, French beans 1.8 vs 0.9, leeks 3.3 vs 2.1 kg/m² — driven by close spacing, deep compost/no-till (30 cm non-inversion), multiple successions and season extension (e.g. Bec Hellouin: 76 production types/yr, 40% under cold greenhouse = 64% of sales)."
source_location: "AMOS Table 5.1; Bec Hellouin (Morel/Guégan/Léger, hal-01178832)"
- claim: "AGAINST yield-parity (whole-system): organic horticulture averages 10–32% LOWER than conventional (Lesur-Dumoulin et al. 2017, meta-analysis of 636 ratios, 37 species, 17 countries), and the advantage REVERSES on mechanisation-favoured bulk staples — potato 2.1 vs 4.5, carrots 2.2 vs 6.1 kg/m². So regenerative is a productivity discount at the whole-system level; conventional yields are the contrast baseline ABOVE the regenerative design figure."
source_location: "Lesur-Dumoulin et al. 2017, Agronomy for Sustainable Development, doi:10.1007/s13593-017-0455-5; AMOS Table 5.1"
- claim: "Flagship biointensive figures are gross revenue or proponent claims, NOT measured kg/m², and exclude bulk storage crops: Bec Hellouin €30.9–54.0/m² (gross euros); Fortier Grelinette ~C$140k/0.6 ha; Stone ~C$75k/0.13 ha; Jeavons 7.5× area efficiency. Bec Hellouin explicitly did NOT grow potatoes (bought from a motorised neighbour, uncounted) — so a whole-diet community figure must sit lower and be weighted toward the staples a self-sufficient community must grow."
source_location: "hal-01178832; Fortier (Wikipedia); Jeavons (growbiointensive.org / EcoFarming)"
- claim: "Quality and NZ-transfer evidence: regenerative produce was +14–34% across vitamins/minerals/phytochemicals in paired US farms (Montgomery et al. 2022, PeerJ — 'preliminary'); long-term soil-carbon gains are real but manure-dependent and topsoil-only (Rodale 34-yr; Lorenz et al. 2025). ⚠ In NZ specifically, regenerative productivity/soil/nutrient benefits were 'anecdotal and lacked controlled scientific evidence as of 2021' (Grelet & Lang 2021 OLW = LIT_013); the closest NZ yield datapoint is grower-reported (Roebuck Farm, Taranaki: ~65 kg from a 14 m salad bed)."
source_location: "Montgomery et al. 2022 PeerJ 12848; Rodale FST / Lorenz et al. 2025 SSSAJ; Grelet & Lang 2021 OLW; Noted/RNZ Roebuck Farm"Neobiome Intelligence relevance
Resolves RT_061 and RT_240 — the regenerative veg_yield basis (NZ small-plot + international biointensive) is now characterised. It sets veg_yield = 25 t/ha (2.5 kg/m²), medium confidence, which happens to validate the model’s existing 25,000 kg/ha placeholder as sourced rather than assumed. ⚠ Whole-diet “staples haircut” caveat: the 25 t/ha mean is drawn from greens-skewed data that excludes bulk storage crops, yet a self-sufficient community must grow its own potatoes/carrots/onions — exactly the crops where the regenerative advantage reverses (organic 10–32% lower whole-system) — so a downward adjustment may be warranted; flagged as a model refinement, not applied now. For decision D_001 this source supplies both sides of the yield debate by design: it does not let the regenerative choice rest on a yield-superiority claim (which the evidence contradicts at whole-system level), but instead supports the decision being made on environmental/sustainability/quality grounds while keeping the contradicting yield evidence on the record for critical honesty. The nutrient-density and dietary-diversity findings reinforce D_001’s “quality over quantity” rationale.
Research targets
Research gaps
- RT_061 (RESOLVED → this page): NZ small-plot regenerative veg-yield basis characterised (medium confidence; NZ evidence anecdotal).
- Firming (RT_241 → LIT_058): the primary AMOS Table 5.1 is now held. Its path-adjusted median crop-mean ≈ 2.08 kg/m² (21 t/ha) sits modestly below this synthesis’s 2.5 (25) — so the model adopts the conservative ~21 t/ha, with 25 retained as the upper estimate. Both held per D_001’s both-sides approach.
- NZ localisation (RT_242 → CR_023): NZ controlled veg trials (LeaderBrand/Woolworths/Plant & Food) now confirm the crop-specific pattern (regen wins on greens — salad/mesclun +45%/~2×; comparable-to-lower on sweetcorn/process), so the UK→NZ transfer of the pattern is supported. ⚠ They report relative/biomass gains, not absolute kg/m², so the ~21 t/ha figure is unchanged; nutrient density remains NZ-unmeasured.
- RT_240 (RESOLVED → this page): international biointensive literature characterised — but mostly revenue/claims, not measured kg/m².
- RT_241 (new): retrieve the “A Matter of Scale” (AMOS) PDF + Table 5.1 — the single direct kg/m² dataset behind the figure — to firm
veg_yieldfrom a held primary. - RT_242 (new): refresh NZ regenerative-agriculture controlled-trial results (trials launched 2021–24, e.g. OLW/MPI SFF/AgResearch) — may now have published, would lift NZ confidence above “anecdotal.”
Connections
Links to
Decisions (1): D_001: Neobiome food production — regenerative…
Referenced by
Sources (5): CR_023 · CR_051 · LIT_058 · OT_108 · OT_193
Decisions (1): D_001: Neobiome food production — regenerative…
SSI indicators (1): I02: Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture
EDT domains (1): D02: Smart Food Systems & Agriculture