Source
https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2024 — original source (opens in a new tab; the file is not redistributed)
IEA (2024) — Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 (Clean Energy Manufacturing & Trade)
The IEA's flagship technology publication (ETP series since 2006), 2024 edition — a 573-page global analysis of the manufacturing and international trade of clean energy technologies, framed through supply-chain security, industrial strategy and trade policy. It is the narrative companion to the Clean Energy Technology Guide CSV (RD_004) that RT_115 sought for its underlying TRL / scenario / aggregation methodology.
⚠ Load-bearing finding: ETP-2024 is a manufacturing-and-trade report on six technologies (solar PV, wind, EVs, batteries, electrolysers, heat pumps), NOT a TRL-methodology document. It DELIVERS two of RT_115’s three asks — the authoritative IEA 11-level TRL scale definition (Annex C, pp.545-546) and the STEPS/APS/NZE scenario assumptions (§2.1) — but defers all per-technology TRL data and the full technology list to the Clean Energy Technology Guide (RD_004, footnote 12 p.155). The CSV’s own 640-technology sector taxonomy is OT_022’s territory, not this report’s. Read verbatim via pdftotext →
data_quality: verified.
Summary
Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 (ETP-2024) is the IEA’s flagship technology report, this edition dedicated to the manufacturing and international trade of clean energy technologies and related materials. Building on ETP-2023’s supply-chain assessment, it introduces a new bottom-up Manufacturing and Trade (MaT) Model and analyses six key technologies — electric vehicles, batteries, solar PV, wind turbines, heat pumps and electrolysers — plus their main components and three materials (steel, aluminium, ammonia). The report is organised in six chapters (1 state of manufacturing and trade; 2 global outlook; 3 outlook in major markets — US/EU/China/India; 4 opportunities in emerging markets; 5 international shipping; 6 strategic considerations), with methodology in Annexes A–E.
For Neobiome Intelligence the report’s value is methodological, not calculation-parametric — it operates at national/global manufacturing scale (GW of capacity, USD-billion markets, bilateral trade flows), with no community-scale technology data. RT_115 was raised to retrieve the methodology behind RD_004’s Clean Energy Technology Guide CSV. The primary read shows ETP-2024 delivers two of the three specific asks verbatim: the IEA 11-level TRL scale definition (TRL 1 basic principles → TRL 9 full commercial operation → TRL 11 predictable growth at scale; Annex C notes, pp.545-546) which is the TRL assessment criteria RD_004’s per-technology readiness lookup rests on, and the three-scenario framework (STEPS / APS / NZE) with its assumptions (base year 2023, annual steps to 2050, detail to 2035, consistent with World Energy Outlook 2024; §2.1). It does not deliver the third ask as stated: the “technology aggregation rules underlying the RD_004 CSV” — ETP-2024 defines aggregation only for its own six-technology MaT model (Annex A Scope), while the CSV’s 640-technology sector taxonomy is the separate IEA Energy Technology Classification (OT_022, already held). The report explicitly points readers back to the Clean Energy Technology Guide for per-technology TRL and development milestones (footnote 12, p.155), confirming the clean division of labour: ETP-2024 = TRL scale definition + scenario framework; RD_004 = per-technology TRL data; OT_022 = the formal taxonomy. One correction is surfaced: RD_004’s page describes a “1-9 scale”, whereas the authoritative IEA scale documented here is 1-11.
Key claims
- claim: "Report scope — 'The analysis covers six key clean energy technologies – electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, heat pumps and electrolysers – which together account for around half of global clean energy investment spending and have a combined market size of more than USD 700 billion. The analysis also covers the manufacturing and trade of the main components of these technologies, alongside three categories of materials – steel, aluminium and ammonia (both for industrial and fuel-related applications) – with a focus on near-zero emissions manufacturing processes.' ETP-2024 is described as 'the first report of its kind to analyse the future of manufacturing and international trade of clean energy technologies and related materials.'"
source_location: "Introduction, p.26"
- claim: "Market size — 'The global market size for six of the main clean energy technologies – solar PV, wind, electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps – has grown nearly fourfold since 2015 to exceed USD 700 billion in 2023, which is around half the value of all the natural gas produced globally that year… Under today's policy settings [STEPS], the market for key clean technologies is set to nearly triple by 2035, to more than USD 2 trillion.'"
source_location: "Executive summary, p.19"
- claim: "Trade share — 'Global goods trade… amounted to around USD 24 trillion in 2023 in value terms. Fossil fuels accounted for around 10% of this, while bulk materials and chemicals – including steel, aluminium and ammonia – accounted for around 20%. Clean energy technology trade today accounts for a comparatively small share relative to these established industries, at around 1%, but it is growing fast.'"
source_location: "Executive summary, pp.19-20"
- claim: "China's manufacturing share — 'China's share of global manufacturing for all six key clean technologies in value terms is around 70% today… the value of China's clean technology exports is on track to exceed USD 340 billion in 2035, based on today's policy settings [STEPS].'"
source_location: "Executive summary, p.22"
- claim: "The Manufacturing and Trade (MaT) Model — 'For this edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), the IEA has developed a new manufacturing and trade (MaT) Model, which projects investments in the manufacturing of clean energy technologies and the key materials used in making them, as well as the resulting bilateral trade flows, based on the optimisation of overall manufacturing and trade costs under different scenarios to 2050… The model determines manufacturing locations and trade patterns based on cost, within a set of constraints.' Demand for finished technology products is derived from the IEA's Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model."
source_location: "Section 2.1 Methodological approach, pp.114-115; Annex A Methodology, p.499"
- claim: "Three scenarios (verbatim definitions). (1) STEPS — 'The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) is designed to provide a sense of the direction the energy system is heading in, based on a detailed review of the current policy landscape… Aspirational energy or climate targets are not taken into consideration.' (2) APS — 'The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes that governments meet, in full and on time, all the climate-related commitments they have announced, including longer-term net zero emissions targets and Nationally Determined Contributions.' (3) NZE — 'The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario) is a normative scenario that sets out a pathway to stabilise global average temperature at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The NZE Scenario achieves global net zero energy sector CO2 emissions by 2050 without relying on emissions reductions from outside the energy sector.'"
source_location: "Section 2.1 Scenario-based modelling, pp.115-116"
- claim: "Scenario scope and horizon — 'The detailed regional projections of demand, manufacturing and trade flows are presented solely for the STEPS and APS… We present only global or aggregated projections for the NZE Scenario, as it is a normative scenario… The base year of analysis is 2023 and projections are made in annual time steps to 2050… For manufacturing and trade, the detailed discussion of results by technology and region is limited to 2035, given that this is the time horizon for which detailed information about planned manufacturing projects and policy incentives is available… The scenarios and results are consistent with those presented in the World Energy Outlook 2024.'"
source_location: "Section 2.1, p.116"
- claim: "IEA 11-level Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale (the assessment criteria RT_115 sought) — 'The TRL provides a snapshot in time of the level of maturity of a given technology. It provides a common framework that can be applied consistently to any technology to assess and compare the maturity of technologies across sectors. The technology journey begins from the point at which its basic principles are defined (TRL 1). As the concept and area of application develop, the technology moves into TRL 2, reaching TRL 3 when an experiment has been carried out that proves the concept. The technology then enters the phase where the concept itself needs to be validated, starting from a prototype developed in a laboratory environment (TRL 4), through to testing in the conditions [in] which it will be deployed (TRL 5-6). The technology next moves to the demonstration phase, where it is tested in real-world environments (TRL 7), eventually reaching a first-of-a-kind commercial demonstration (TRL 8) on its way towards full commercial operation in the relevant environment (TRL 9). Beyond this stage… TRL10 denotes that the solution is commercial and competitive, but needs further integration efforts, and TRL11 denotes that it has reached predictable growth.'"
source_location: "Annex C, TRL table notes, pp.545-546"
- claim: "Per-technology TRL data is DEFERRED to the Clean Energy Technology Guide, not carried in this report. Footnote 12: 'See the IEA's Clean Energy Technology Guide for a current snapshot of the technology readiness level and development milestones for each of these technologies.' And the TRL scale note itself: 'This table does not aim to be exhaustive. For a more comprehensive list and description please refer to the IEA's Clean Technology Guide.'"
source_location: "Chapter 2 footnote 12, p.155; Annex C TRL note, p.546"
- claim: "Technology-aggregation boundaries of the MaT Model (six-technology scope — NOT the 640-technology CSV taxonomy): 'Batteries include the battery cells and any individual parts that are used to compose a battery cell. The cathodes and anodes are modelled explicitly, but not the electrolyte, separator…' ; 'Solar PV includes the solar modules, solar cells, wafers and polysilicon… It does not include… inverters and racking.' ; 'Wind includes wind nacelles, blades and towers…' ; 'Electrolysers include all major electrolyser technologies (including alkaline, proton exchange membrane, solid oxide electrolysis…)…' ; 'Heat pumps include… only heat pumps that deliver heat directly to residential and commercial buildings… industrial heat pumps are excluded.' ; 'Electric cars include battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)…'"
source_location: "Annex A Scope, pp.499-500"Neobiome Intelligence relevance
This is the primary source RT_115 was raised to retrieve, and its value to Neobiome Intelligence is methodological provenance, not calculation parameters — the report is a global manufacturing/trade analysis with no community-scale technology data. Three uses:
- Authoritative TRL scale behind RD_004’s readiness lookup (methodology_frameworks → iea_edt_taxonomy_mapping / D01). RD_004’s per-technology TRL trajectory (2020–2024) is the readiness lookup the NI calculation skill uses to gate deploy-vs-pilot decisions; ETP-2024 supplies the definition of the scale itself (TRL 1 → 11, pp.545-546). NI’s existing decision thresholds (TRL ≥9 = deploy with confidence; 7-8 = pilot-scale, deployment risk material; <7 = research-pilot only) can now cite the IEA’s own level definitions verbatim rather than a paraphrase. Note the 1-11 span (not 1-9): TRL10 = commercial and competitive but needing integration; TRL11 = predictable growth at scale — directly relevant to community-integration readiness, which is exactly where NI’s “component vs integrated community system” gap sits (RD_004’s finding that the IEA tracks components, not community integration).
- Scenario framework underlying RD_004’s NZErationale column (methodology / D01). RD_004 carries an IEA “NZErationale” (Net Zero Emissions argument) for each of its 640 technologies; ETP-2024 documents the NZE Scenario those rationales are written against (normative 1.5°C pathway, global net-zero energy-sector CO2 by 2050), alongside STEPS (current-policy) and APS (announced-pledges). This lets NI correctly frame RD_004’s per-technology rationale as IEA normative NZE framing (climate-mitigation primary), distinct from NI’s own resilience/autonomy framing — the caveat RD_004 already flagged.
- Supply-chain-security lens on NI’s headline energy technologies (D01 — background caveat). For the six mass-manufactured technologies at the core of NI’s D01 menu (solar PV, wind, batteries, heat pumps, electrolysers, EVs), China holds ~70% of global manufacturing by value and clean-tech trade is highly concentrated. This is a supply-resilience caveat for a self-sufficiency framing — the hardware a “self-sufficient” community depends on sits on a concentrated global supply chain — useful as thesis-side energy-security context and a footnote to D01, not a calculation input.
Scope caveat: ETP-2024 operates at national/global manufacturing and trade scale (USD-billion markets, GW of capacity, bilateral flows, tariffs). There is no community-scale, per-technology cost or performance data in it that NI can parameterise against. Its concrete contributions are the TRL scale definition and the scenario framework; the per-technology TRL detail lives in the sibling RD_004, and the formal RD&D taxonomy in OT_022.
Research targets
Documents retrieved — RT partially served
- RT_115 (PARTIALLY SERVED → this page): IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 retrieved, read verbatim and ingested. ⚠ Scope: it is a
doctarget and the document is now held, but the RT’s framing (“methodology document for TRL assessment criteria, scenario assumptions, and technology aggregation rules underlying the RD_004 CSV”) is answered only in part. Delivered verbatim: the IEA 11-level TRL assessment scale (pp.545-546) and the STEPS/APS/NZE scenario assumptions (§2.1, pp.114-116). Not delivered: per-technology TRL data and development milestones (explicitly deferred to the Clean Energy Technology Guide, RD_004, footnote 12 p.155) and the CSV’s 640-technology sector taxonomy / aggregation (that is the IEA Energy Technology Classification, OT_022, already held). ETP-2024’s own aggregation (Annex A Scope) covers only its six-technology MaT model. Net: the two methodology pieces most central to RT_115 are now sourced, and the residual is already covered elsewhere in the corpus — so no new retrieval target is spawned and RT_115 stays open only to record the partial framing-match.
Research gaps
- None minted. (The ETP-2024 TRL note points to the IEA Clean Energy Technology Guide for a “more comprehensive list and description” of TRL levels, and the 11-point scale itself originates in the earlier IEA innovation work — the ETP-2020 Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation introduced it. But the scale definition captured here plus RD_004 already suffice; a standalone innovation/TRL methodology report is not raised as a target.)
Notes
Primary authoritative IEA publication — Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 (IEA, Paris; CC BY 4.0; the clean energy manufacturing & trade edition), 573 pages, downloaded from iea.org (not an AI synthesis). Read verbatim via pdftotext -layout → data_quality: verified; every quantitative claim is traceable to a stated printed page (the report’s “PAGE | N” running footers, the citation basis used here — consistent with OT_022). source_type: other and context: both, matching the IEA-methodology cluster (OT_022 classification, RD_004 Clean Tech Guide, ETP-2023).
⚠ Correction surfaced. RD_004’s page describes the Clean Energy Technology Guide as using a “TRL, 1-9 scale”. The authoritative IEA scale documented verbatim in ETP-2024 is 1-11 (TRL10 = commercial and competitive but needing integration; TRL11 = predictable growth at scale). RD_004’s own key_claims already note the scale is “1-9 (occasionally 11)”, so this is a confirmation and sharpening rather than a contradiction.
⚠ Not a duplicate. ETP-2024 (this page) is a different edition from ETP-2023 (the clean-energy manufacturing edition): 2024 introduces the new MaT Model and the six-technology manufacturing/trade analysis; 2023 is the supply-chain-manufacturing archetype edition. Both are distinct from RD_004 (the Clean Energy Technology Guide CSV dataset) and OT_022 (the formal classification PDF). No existing page carries the 2024 narrative report.
Corpus fit: completes the IEA-methodology cluster — OT_022 (formal 9-group RD&D classification), RD_004 (640-technology Clean Energy Technology Guide CSV, per-technology TRL data), ETP-2023 (manufacturing archetypes), and now ETP-2024 (the TRL scale definition + STEPS/APS/NZE scenario framework these rest on).
Connections
Links to
Concepts (1): IEA ↔ EDT Taxonomy Mapping
Referenced by
Concepts (1): IEA ↔ EDT Taxonomy Mapping
EDT domains (1): D01: Renewable Energy & Storage Systems