Source
doi:10.3390/earth2040047 — original publication (opens in a new tab; the file is not redistributed)
Curran-Cournane & Rush (2021) — Feeding the NZ Family of Five Million, 5+ a Day of Vegetables?
Peer-reviewed NZ veg supply-vs-diet study — diet-diversity frame + the case for regenerative (not its yields)
Curran-Cournane (MfE) & Rush (AUT/Riddet), Earth 2021 (open-access CC-BY). Asks whether NZ produces enough servings AND diversity of vegetables for the 5+/day guideline, using HortNZ “Fresh Facts” 2017–2020 (commercial/industrial) data. Headline: NZ produces ~11.7 servings/day/person on just 0.2% of its land, but exports a quarter of it and fails badly on diversity — legumes (0.57 servings/day) and dark-green-leafy veg (0.03) are wholly inadequate. Per the locked Neobiome food specification, this source’s industrial yields are NOT adopted as model benchmarks — its NI value is the diet-DIVERSITY frame, land-capability data, and its environmental-footprint critique of intensive production (evidence FOR the regenerative selection). Thesis value: food security/sovereignty, land capability, Māori soil sovereignty.
Summary
A macro analysis of NZ domestic vegetable production against the national 5-servings-a-day dietary guideline and the FAO Minimum-Dietary-Diversity (MDD-W) framework’s five vegetable groups. Using publicly-available Fresh Facts (Plant & Food / HortNZ) production + land-area data 2017–2020, the authors compute servings/day/person and land use per vegetable. NZ produces ample quantity (11.7 servings/day on ~45,000 ha = 0.2% of NZ land) but inadequate diversity: production of legumes and dark-green-leafy vegetables falls far short of one serving/day each. The paper situates this in finite versatile-land (LUC 1–3) constraints, the environmental footprints of intensive conventional production, urban encroachment on prime growing land (Pukekohe), regenerative-agriculture momentum, and Māori food/soil sovereignty.
Key claims
- claim: "NZ produces the equivalent of ~11.7–12 servings of vegetables/day/person (75 g serving) on ~45,000 ha = just 0.2% of NZ's total land area. But ~3.2 servings/day/person are EXPORTED (mainly onions — ~85% of onion production — and squash) and only ~0.13–0.15 imported. Four crops dominate: potatoes 4.5 servings/day (2.7 of it processed/fries), onions 1.5, carrots 1.1, squash 0.6 = 7.7 of the 11.7; all remaining vegetables together supply only 2.9 servings/day."
source_location: "Results p.801 (Tables 1–2) + p.803 §4.1"
- claim: "Domestic production is INADEQUATE for two of the five dietary-diversity groups: legumes 0.567 servings/day/person and dark-green-leafy vegetables 0.026 servings/day/person. To supply one serving/day/person of each of the five groups, the land area for legumes would need to increase ~76% and for dark-green-leafy vegetables ~3811% (Table 3) — i.e. the diet-essential diversity crops are the most land-hungry / lowest-yielding."
source_location: "Results p.801 + Table 3 p.802"
- claim: "Implied production yields (tons ÷ hectares, 2020, Table 2; CONVENTIONAL/industrial production): potatoes ~59 t/ha, carrots ~92, pumpkin ~63, cabbage ~61, onions ~40, silverbeet/spinach ~35, cauliflower ~35, broccoli ~26, sweetcorn ~26, processed peas ~15, squash ~13.5 (outdoor); greenhouse tomatoes/capsicum ~180–208. The sector-wide gross average across all vegetables is ~38.5 t/ha (1,604,493 t ÷ 41,676 ha) — dominated by high-yielding staples. [Recorded as the conventional contrast; NOT a Neobiome model benchmark — see NI relevance.]"
source_location: "Table 2 p.801 (derived: tons/hectares per row)"
- claim: "Vegetable economics: average cost ~40 c per 75 g serving → ~$2/person/day for five servings (~$4/day for a 2-person household, ~5 kg/week). NZ modelling: a healthy vegetable-sufficient diet costs 18–25% of food spend vs 10–13% for a less-healthy diet; minimum-income households spend 27–34% of income on food. ~25% of NZ household food waste by weight is fresh vegetables (about one-third in edible condition)."
source_location: "Results p.801 + Discussion p.803"
- claim: "Intensive conventional outdoor vegetable production carries high environmental footprints: continuous rotary-hoeing/deep-ripping lowers soil carbon and biodiversity; excessive fertiliser drives nitrate leaching (NZ synthetic-N fertiliser sales rose >600% 1991–2019); these practices conflict with freshwater-health policy. Only LUC class 1–3 land can grow vegetables (~0.9% + 4.5% + 9.2% of NZ); prime land is being lost (Pukekohe, ~25% of NZ's vegetables, projected −46–55% production by 2043 to urban encroachment, prices +43–58%). Regenerative agriculture — accounting for farm diversity and best management practice — is gaining scientific momentum in NZ as the sustainable counter."
source_location: "Discussion §4.1 pp.803–804"Neobiome Intelligence relevance
Project specification (locked, 2026-06-10): Neobiome food production is modelled on regenerative / permaculture / biodynamic / organic / biointensive systems ONLY. Industrial/conventional yields are not adopted as model benchmarks. See decision D_001.
Under that specification, this source is used as the conventional baseline for contrast and, importantly, as evidence FOR the regenerative selection — its environmental-footprint critique of intensive production (soil-carbon loss, nitrate leaching, +600% synthetic-N since 1991, prime-land degradation) is the “long-term sustainability vs short-term gains” data the thesis needs. Its NI value is therefore not its yields (which are industrial and recorded as contrast only) but: (1) the diet-DIVERSITY frame (5×75 g/day across the five MDD-W groups; legumes + dark-green-leafy as the binding gap) — system-agnostic and the real food-slice refinement (the model currently treats vegetables as one undifferentiated kg/person/yr mass; diversity is the true constraint); (2) land capability (LUC 1–3; ~45,000 ha / 0.2% of NZ; per-group land needs) for the GIS/A3 siting and the food-land question. The model’s veg_yield must instead be sourced from regenerative/permaculture/biointensive evidence (RT_061, now scoped to that system class; international biointensive literature via the companion RT). Advances RT_061 (diet-coverage + the case for regenerative) and RT_196 (veg land footprint); does not close them. Caveat: explicitly excludes community/school/home-grown vegetables and is a macro/rounded snapshot.
Key thesis insights
- Diversity, not quantity, is NZ’s vegetable self-sufficiency gap — ample potatoes/onions/carrots, but legumes and dark-green-leafy veg fall far short of dietary needs; relying on imports for these (short shelf-life, folate-critical) is risky. Supports a self-sufficiency argument grounded in diet quality, not calories/mass.
- Finite versatile land (LUC 1–3) is the binding physical constraint — only ~14% of NZ land can grow vegetables, and prime land (Pukekohe) is being lost to sprawl; the NPS for Highly Productive Land is the policy response. Foundational to community food-system siting.
- Intensive conventional production carries a heavy environmental footprint (nitrate leaching, soil-carbon loss, +600% N-fertiliser since 1991) — the direct evidence base for the Neobiome specification of regenerative-only food production (D_001): long-term soil/water health over short-term intensive yield.
- Māori soil sovereignty (soil as taonga; Te Mahi Oneone Hua Parakore) frames local food production and collective gardens as self-determination — a kaupapa-Māori lens on community food self-sufficiency aligned with the regenerative specification.
Research targets
Research gaps
- RT_061 (advanced, stays open — now scoped to regenerative/biointensive): NZ community/small-plot regenerative/permaculture/biointensive vegetable yield — this paper is commercial/sector-scale and explicitly excludes home/community growing, so it does not provide the Neobiome
veg_yield. - RT_196 (advanced): veg land-footprint quantified (~45,000 ha / 0.2% NZ; legume +76% / DGLV +3811% land to close the diversity gap) — informs the community food-land question.
Connections
Links to
Decisions (1): D_001: Neobiome food production — regenerative…
Referenced by
Sources (3): OT_164 · OT_165 · OT_167
Decisions (1): D_001: Neobiome food production — regenerative…
SSI indicators (1): I02: Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture
EDT domains (1): D02: Smart Food Systems & Agriculture