CR_026: NZ heat-pump installed cost & COP 2025–26 (Perplexity Deep Research

CR_026: NZ heat-pump installed cost & COP 2025–26 (Perplexity Deep Research

NZ heat-pump installed cost & COP 2025–26

Fills the heat-pump cost cells (NZD/kW_th) and firms the COP — unblocks the heat-economics layer

A Perplexity Deep Research synthesis (2026-06-11) deriving NZ installed cost per kW of thermal output for air-source (split + ducted) and ground-source heat pumps, plus seasonal COP. Central figures: ASHP split 760 NZD/kW_th (high-confidence — 5 NZ installers + EECA $4,400 anchor), ASHP ducted 1,500, GSHP 2,500 (inferred). SCOP: ASHP 4.0, GSHP 4.2. These populate heat_pump_air / heat_pump_ground cost cells (previously empty) and upgrade cop_gshp from assumed to sourced. data_quality: medium (ASHP well-corroborated; GSHP inferred; AI-prepared).

Summary

A Perplexity Deep Research consolidation of NZ heat-pump installed costs (NZD per kW of thermal/heating output, GST-incl, 2024–26) and seasonal coefficients of performance, for the air-source (air-to-air split and ducted whole-home) and ground-source (geothermal) systems the model prices. The air-source split figure is robustly triangulated across multiple NZ installer price lists and EECA’s published average; the ground-source figure is inferred from the one detailed NZ cost breakdown available (no NZ source publishes a direct $/kW_th GSHP figure). International benchmarks (UK/EU/US) are carried as transferred cross-checks and sit materially above NZ.

Key claims

- claim: "Air-source heat pump (air-to-air split, high-wall/floor-console — the dominant NZ residential space-heating type): installed cost ≈ NZD 760/kW_th central (range 600–1,050), GST-incl. By capacity (installed): 2.5 kW $2,200–3,000 (~$1,040/kW_th), 3.5 kW $2,500–3,500 (~$857), 5.0 kW $3,200–4,500 (~$760), 7.0 kW $3,500–5,000 (~$629) — clear economies of scale (7 kW ~40% cheaper per kW_th than 2.5 kW). Worked Canterbury example: unit $2,850 + install $1,150 + compliance $220 = $4,220 ÷ 5 kW = $844/kW_th, consistent with EECA's $4,400 national average. HIGH confidence — 5 independent NZ installer sources (Auckland/Canterbury/Waikato) agree within ±15%, anchored to EECA."
  source_location: "§1 Air-Source Heat Pump (§1.1–1.2; Model Cell Recommendations §3.1)"
- claim: "Ducted whole-home air-source systems cost ≈ NZD 1,500/kW_th (range 1,200–1,800) — roughly double a split system per kW_th, owing to ductwork fabrication and fitment labour; 8–12 kW systems $10,000–20,000 installed. Multi-split (one outdoor unit + multiple heads) ≈ NZD 500–800/kW_th, comparable to single splits at similar total capacity."
  source_location: "§1.2 Ducted; §1.3 Multi-split"
- claim: "Ground-source (geothermal) heat pump: installed cost ≈ NZD 2,500/kW_th central (range 1,600–3,500), MODERATE confidence (inferred — no NZ source publishes a direct $/kW_th). Best NZ breakdown (EAC Canterbury 2024/25): unit $12,000–16,000 + ground loop/borehole $4,000–15,000 = total $16,000–25,000 for a typical 8–12 kW residential system; the ground loop is 30–50% of total cost. NZ sits BELOW UK/EU/US (~NZD 3,000–6,700/kW_th transferred) due to lower NZ drilling labour and lighter regulation. System types: horizontal loop (rural, large land), vertical borehole (any NZ site, 60–200 m), open-loop (consented aquifer)."
  source_location: "§2 Ground-Source Heat Pump (§2.1–2.4)"
- claim: "Seasonal COP (the right basis for annual modelling): ASHP rated COP 3.0–5.5, but real-world NZ SCOP 3.5–4.5 (defrost, cold-start, partial-load) → central SCOP 4.0. GSHP SCOP 3.5–5.0 → central 4.2, and more PREDICTABLE than ASHP because ground temperature is stable (12–16°C at loop depth year-round, no cold-weather degradation). Cold-climate ASHP units (Mitsubishi Hyper Heat, Daikin, Fujitsu) hold COP > 2.5 at −15°C — relevant for southern/high-altitude community sites. Heat pumps deliver 3–5× more heat per kW-electricity than resistance heating."
  source_location: "§1.4 + §2.5 COP/SCOP; §3.1"
- claim: "Sources: NZ HVAC installer price guides 2024–26 (EAC Canterbury, Airmax NZ, Hines, Rinnai, UR Plumber, General Airstage) + EECA $4,400 split average for ASHP; EAC Canterbury breakdown + NZ Geothermal Association/GHANZ + GNS Science 2024 brief for GSHP; international (UK MCS 2024, EU EHPA 2025, US NZGA keynote) as transferred cross-checks. AI-prepared (Perplexity Deep Research)."
  source_location: "References; §1.1, §2.1"

Retrieval provenance

• Upstream source: NZ HVAC installer price guides 2024–26 + EECA ($4,400 split avg); NZ Geothermal Assn / GNS for GSHP; UK/EU/US international cross-checks.
• Prepared by: Perplexity Deep Research, 2026-06-11.
• Prompt: NZ heat-pump installed cost in NZD/kW_th (ASHP split + ducted, GSHP) with COP/SCOP, prioritising authoritative NZ sources. (Full prompt in the _retrieval.md sidecar.)
• Verification: ASHP-split well-corroborated (5 NZ sources + EECA anchor, ±15%); GSHP inferred from one NZ breakdown. data_quality: medium (heat_pump_air cell can carry high, heat_pump_ground medium).

Neobiome Intelligence relevance

Unblocks the heat-economics layer (H2_HeatSupply) — the model’s heat_pump_air and heat_pump_ground cost cells were empty (gap); this fills them: heat_pump_air = 760 NZD/kW_th (split, the per-household space-heat default; high) and heat_pump_ground = 2,500 NZD/kW_th (medium, inferred). Ducted (1,500) is held as the whole-home alternative. It also firms the efficiencies: cop_gshp upgrades from assumed 4.5 → sourced 4.2, and cop_air is corroborated at SCOP 4.0 (with OT_070’s 4.08) — supporting moving the model central from its conservative 3.5 to 4.0, with 3.5 retained as the P90 cold-year low (D16). For southern/high-altitude community sites, the GSHP’s stable COP (no cold-weather degradation) or a cold-climate ASHP matters. ⚠ ASHP figures are high-confidence; the GSHP figure is inferred/moderate; AI-prepared. Resolves RT_243 (the heat-pump cost gap, opened for this).

Research targets

Research gaps

• RT_243 (RESOLVED → this page): NZ heat-pump installed cost (NZD/kW_th) for heat_pump_air + heat_pump_ground now held; ASHP triangulated (high), GSHP inferred (medium).
• GSHP firming (no RT — noted): a direct NZ $/kW_th GSHP figure (installer quotes from Central Heating NZ / GeoExchange) would lift the moderate GSHP figure to high.

Connections

Referenced by

EDT domains (1): D01: Renewable Energy & Storage Systems